Ethereum is traditionally strong at the start of the year
Historically, October has regularly delivered double-digit returns for Bitcoin, whereas autumn has usually been less productive for Ethereum. According to TradingView, October is still considered a positive month for Ether, but its median increase — about 7% — clearly lags behind the spring months of 2025. The strongest periods for Ethereum have typically been at the beginning of the year — January, February, and March — when gains consistently outpaced the average. If September closed red, October has historically turned out green.
But 2025 paints a different picture: the third quarter was the strongest Q3 on record — up by around 66.7%. The fourth quarter is traditionally bullish, and today’s momentum is being fueled not only by market cycles but increasingly by institutional investors and corporate treasuries accumulating billions in ETH. This factor can radically reshape seasonality now and deliver a colossal rally across the crypto market through the end of 2025!
ETFs and corporate treasuries: a powerful influx of capital
When Ethereum ETFs launched last year, expectations were muted. Many doubted whether ETH could attract institutions the way Bitcoin did. But in 2025 the picture has changed: in the second half of the year, funds have been showing strong investor inflows.
In just the last week of October, net inflows totaled roughly $1.30 billion, bringing the year-to-date sum to $13.7 billion — nearly triple 2024.
In addition, Ethereum treasury companies continue to accumulate ETH, now holding about 4.54% of total supply. The combined impact of ETFs and corporate buying creates a self-reinforcing cycle: rising prices spur new purchases, and new purchases push prices even higher. This feedback loop could become a decisive catalyst for the uptrend.
Data and metrics: a strong foundation
Total Value Locked (TVL) — the amount of capital locked in smart contracts — has reached around $95 billion, significantly above the level at the start of the year. Rising TVL reflects user confidence and network activity.
Compared with other blockchains, including Solana, Ethereum still dominates the DeFi sector.
Moreover, the number of active addresses is rising again after declining in tandem with the price correction to $3,825. This signals renewed interest and fresh capital inflows. Historically, an increase in active addresses has preceded stronger demand and higher transaction volumes — as in 2021 when altseason began.
Ethereum’s autumn momentum
While Bitcoin retains market leadership, Ethereum is also benefiting from the current positive dynamics. It shows robust fundamentals, ETF inflows remain strong, and institutions continue to accumulate the asset. Combined with rising on-chain activity, this creates an environment conducive to further growth.
If the macro backdrop remains stable and no new geopolitical risks emerge, Ethereum could well test $5,000 in the coming weeks of October — our projection.
Current trends and forecasts suggest that Ethereum can not only maintain but strengthen its position within the “Uptober” narrative, reaffirming its status as a key driver of the market’s second tier — with the altcoin market likely to follow.