XRP/USD consolidates as Ripple prepares ETF launch and new institutional deals

Currently, the XRP/USD pair is under the influence of conflicting factors. On the one hand, the short-term outlook remains positive for Ripple, the issuer of XRP, which recently attracted $500 million from institutional investors, including Fortress Investment and Citadel Securities, pushing its valuation to $40 billion. Ripple also announced a joint initiative with MasterCard Inc. and the crypto exchange Gemini to test RLUSD — a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin launched on the XRP Ledger in December 2024 — for payment transactions. If successful, it could replace traditional, slower, and more expensive settlement systems currently used by banks. On Thursday, the first spot Ripple ETF by Canary Capital is set to launch, following the company’s final SEC filing (Form 8A) to approve the listing, which may boost XRP’s liquidity and attract new investors previously hesitant to enter the market.

However, mid-term fundamentals remain negative for the crypto sector. Traders are concerned that the U.S. Federal Reserve may refrain from another rate cut in December. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s plan to issue “dividend” payments to U.S. citizens funded by higher trade tariffs could fuel inflation, prompting the regulator to maintain its cautious stance and extend the current monetary policy. As a result, the “fear and greed” index remains in the “extreme fear” zone at 24 points.

Support and resistance levels

The pair continues to trade within a medium-term downtrend channel. The price is currently near 2.3438 (Murray [4/8]), below the middle Bollinger Band. A breakdown below this level could extend the decline toward 1.9531 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.6880 (Fibonacci 61.8% extension). For bulls, the key resistance lies at 2.7344 (Murray [6/8], upper Bollinger Band); a breakout above it would signal an exit from the downward channel and open the way toward 3.1250 (Murray [8/8]) and 3.5156 (Murray [+2/8]).

Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands are flattening, MACD stays in the negative zone, and Stochastic is turning down from the overbought area.

Resistance levels: 2.7344, 3.1250, 3.5156.

Support levels: 2.3438, 1.9531, 1.6880.

Trading scenarios and XRP/USD forecast

Short positions can be opened below 2.3438 with targets at 1.9531 and 1.6880 and a stop loss at 2.6200. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 2.7344 with targets at 3.1250 and 3.5156 and a stop loss at 2.4500.