According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points to support the cooling labor market has reached nearly 100%. Analysts are focusing on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 20:30 (GMT+2), where he may hint at the regulator’s next policy steps.

Fed meeting probability of rate cut
Federal Reserve rate cut probability — Source: CME Group

Some analysts suggest that monetary easing could pause in the absence of fresh macro data due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. On the other hand, any progress from the Trump–Xi talks could reduce fears of a global downturn and boost demand for risk assets. Conversely, a lack of progress may strengthen the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency.

Despite near-term uncertainty, the medium-term outlook remains favorable for XRP. Last week, Ripple completed the acquisition of institutional credit network Hidden Road and rebranded it as Ripple Prime, becoming the first crypto company to operate a global multi-asset brokerage. CEO Brad Garlinghouse called the move another step toward building an “Internet of Value.” Investors also await the SEC’s approval of a Ripple ETF, though the review process has been delayed due to the government shutdown.

Support and Resistance Levels

The asset continues to trade within a medium-term descending channel, nearing the upper Bollinger Band at 2.7344 (Murrey [6/8]). A breakout above this level could open the path to 3.1250 (Murrey [8/8]) and 3.5156 (Murrey [+2/8]). Conversely, consolidation below 2.3438 (Murrey [4/8]) may trigger a decline toward 1.9531 (Murrey [2/8]) and 1.6880 (Fibonacci 61.8%).

Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic oscillator are turning lower, while the MACD histogram is approaching the positive zone, hinting at a potential bullish reversal.

Resistance levels: 2.7344, 3.1250, 3.5156.
Support levels: 2.3438, 1.9531, 1.6880.

XRP/USD chart

XRP/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast

Short positions can be opened below 2.3438 with targets at 1.9531 and 1.6880, and a stop loss at 2.6500. Time frame: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be considered above 2.7344 with targets at 3.1250 and 3.5156, and a stop loss at 2.4500.

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 2.3435
Take Profit 1.9531, 1.6880
Stop Loss 2.6500
Key Levels 1.6880, 1.9531, 2.3438, 2.7344, 3.1250, 3.5156

Alternative Scenario

Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 2.7345
Take Profit 3.1250, 3.5156
Stop Loss 2.4500
Key Levels 1.6880, 1.9531, 2.3438, 2.7344,