The abduction of Venezuela’s president by the United States has triggered widespread outrage — and, at the same time, speculation about a crypto market rally. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes describes the escalation as a “colonial plunder” with a single objective: cheap oil. As Hayes puts it, “in America, you don’t exist without a car,” and gasoline prices directly influence election outcomes. That is why, he argues, Donald Trump will do whatever it takes to keep fuel prices low — even if it means effectively colonizing an entire country.
For capital markets, however, the attack on the Latin American nation is a net positive, Hayes claims in his latest essay. His conclusion is straightforward: “As long as equity markets are rising and oil stays cheap, Trump will keep printing money.” As a result, Bitcoin’s price should climb on the back of the expected surge in liquidity. “If oil prices and yields spike sharply, it’s time to reduce risk. But until that happens — buy,” he says.
Hayes’ core argument is that “the only thing the average voter truly cares about is the economy.” Cultural debates become irrelevant as long as people feel wealthier. And that, in turn, requires rising nominal GDP — which largely depends on the amount of credit in the system.
Hayes’ outlook for 2026 is built around a massive reflation trade. “This is the most socialist president since Franklin D. Roosevelt,” he says of Trump, adding: “He won’t lose — not because he prints too little money.”
His portfolio structure reflects this view: long positions in BTC and ETH, along with “a whole bunch of privacy coins.” According to Hayes, privacy-focused assets are set to become the market’s next major narrative. One analyst even suggests that Zcash could reach $1,000.
Hayes’ advice to traders is blunt: “Stop arguing about socialism, communism, or capitalism. Nobody actually lives by these ‘isms.’ Just buy.”
