The study showed that since Bitcoin’s emergence in 2009, its rapid ascent has coincided with an unprecedented expansion in U.S. equity valuations. The S&P 500 has risen to nearly twice the level of U.S. GDP — something not seen in almost a century. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s ratio to its global peers has reached 2.34, underscoring the U.S. market’s overvaluation relative to the rest of the world.
Stretched Bitcoin and SPX vs. GDP, World -
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 15, 2025
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin's rise has coincided with the US stock market's surge to its highest vs. GDP and the rest of the world in about a century, with reversion implications favoring gold. China now, the US in the 1930s and… pic.twitter.com/tVHt1S8H0D
Market extremes
McGlone warns that such “stretched” levels often signal potential reversals. He cites historical parallels — the U.S. in the 1930s, Japan in the 1990s, and China’s recent cycle — when assets that had soared to extreme valuations subsequently experienced major deflationary corrections.
“Bitcoin’s rise has coincided with the U.S. equity market reaching record levels relative to GDP and the rest of the world — for the first time in a century. The mean-reversion implications favor gold,” he wrote on X.
The analyst suggests that gold could regain its footing as a safe-haven asset if a correction begins. Historically, stock-market overheating has often been accompanied by investors rotating into a “safe harbor.” Today’s combination of Bitcoin’s exponential rise and inflated “equities/GDP” metrics points to potential instability. In his report, McGlone asks, “Is it different this time?” — reflecting doubts about whether such a setup can become the “new normal” without a pullback.
Gold strengthening relative to Bitcoin
According to Investing.com, gold is strengthening against Bitcoin: the XAU/BTC ratio rose by 1.14% and closed at 0.0374. This indicates a notable short-term rebound in gold amid rising demand for safe-haven assets.
Over the past week, gold has appreciated 15.19% versus Bitcoin; over the month — 17.47%; and over three months the ratio has increased by 32.34%, underscoring gold’s outperformance while risk assets fluctuate more sharply.
Although over the past five years gold’s relative value has fallen by 77.43%, the recent reversal points to a shift in sentiment. Over six months gold is down 3.72% and over one year down 5.65%, yet the trend is now turning higher.
The move reflects renewed interest in gold amid tightening global liquidity and investor caution. With the S&P 500 valued at roughly twice the size of the economy and Bitcoin trading near record highs, market participants are once again diversifying in favor of gold.