Since the beginning of the year, users have withdrawn more than 360,000 BTC (around $41 billion) from centralized platforms. This marks the lowest level in years — and a critical signal for the market.
Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce
On November 21, 2022, the BTC price dropped below $16,000 — the low point of the painful bear market triggered by the FTX collapse. Those who had the courage to buy back then are now sitting on gains of more than 600%.
The key factor, however, is supply dynamics. In autumn 2022, exchanges held over 3.4 million BTC, compared to just 2.48 million today. In August alone, investors withdrew about 57,000 BTC ($6.4 billion). More holders are embracing the principle “Not your keys, not your coins”, opting for hardware wallets like Ledger, Trezor, and BitBox.
But self-custody isn’t the only reason. In the U.S., friendlier regulations are driving banks and financial firms to offer custody solutions themselves. Meanwhile, funds and companies — including Strategy, Metaplanet, and Bitcoin Spot ETFs — have been scooping up hundreds of thousands of coins, which are not held on exchanges.
Treasury firms and the Bitcoin race
Michael Saylor and his company Strategy remain at the forefront. Despite criticism, MSTR stock has already delivered investors a 25.8% return in 2025, while its BTC holdings have grown close to 638,000 coins.
Other players are joining the race: Twenty One Capital, Trump Media, ProCap, and American Bitcoin Corp. Not all will survive the next bear cycle, but the strongest will persist and continue draining supply from the market.
“If companies take on too much debt, problems are inevitable. But those that manage leverage prudently, or even denominate non-callable debt in Bitcoin, are far more resilient to corrections,” said crypto pioneer Adam Back.
What does this mean for the price?
Falling exchange reserves have historically been viewed as a bullish signal: when supply drops while demand remains steady or rises, prices tend to increase. Still, it’s not a guaranteed indicator — the 2021 crash showed that reserves can shrink even as the market tumbles.
Nevertheless, seasonality favors Bitcoin heading into year-end: October and November are historically the strongest months for BTC (with average returns of +22% and +46%). Add the widely expected Fed rate cut next week, and the outlook for Bitcoin becomes increasingly positive.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan remains confident:
“By year-end, Bitcoin will reach $200,000.”