After a wild week, calm has returned. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a new record high of $126,000 — but soon corrected sharply, leading to the largest collapse in crypto history: over $19 billion in positions were liquidated within 24 hours. The world’s largest cryptocurrency now trades around $106,000, nearly 15% below its peak.
Market sentiment is mixed but mostly frustrated — especially as precious metals soar. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has gained around 15%, while gold has surged nearly 60%, reaching a $30 trillion market cap — its strongest performance in decades. Gold is now worth 25 times more than Bitcoin. The gap between the assets keeps widening, raising the question: where will “digital gold” head next — will it follow the rally or fall behind?
Accumulation or the End of the Bull Market?
Social media is abuzz: if stocks and gold are rising but Bitcoin is not — does the market still have the strength for another move?
Renowned analyst PlanB believes the bull market isn’t over yet. His argument: the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hasn’t yet surpassed 80 in this cycle — a level that has historically marked the end of bullish trends. For comparison, gold’s RSI now stands at a record 91.
However, RSI isn’t a macro indicator but a short-term momentum gauge. It signals overbought conditions but not when a market will reverse. In late bull phases, a high RSI can persist for months while prices continue rising — or suddenly drop without warning. Moreover, the market structure has changed: ETF inflows, institutional players, and algorithmic trading make Bitcoin react differently than in past cycles, so RSI comparisons over time are only partially reliable.
Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because ... the 4 year cycle!?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025
IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… pic.twitter.com/tehnZ4rRab
The same goes for the comparison with gold, which has long supported Bitcoin’s image as its “digital twin.” Both assets behave similarly in certain cycles: as “hard” stores of value, they benefit from inflation fears, debt growth, and falling real rates. As Anthony Pompliano notes:
When gold rises, Bitcoin typically follows about 100 days later. Both assets are driven by the same tailwinds — soaring debt, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.
But the correlation is inconsistent: sometimes Bitcoin tracks gold, sometimes it moves with risk assets like tech stocks — as in 2020–2021. The connection between the two markets is temporary and unreliable as a price indicator.
Today, the assets are diverging. Gold’s rally is fueled by massive central-bank purchases (China, Russia, India), while Bitcoin’s earlier momentum from ETF inflows and corporate buying is fading.
Corporates and ETFs Lose Momentum
According to 10x Research, corporate Bitcoin purchases have sharply declined. In July, companies bought more than 100,000 BTC; in August — 48,000; in September — 46,000. Even Strategy has slowed down, while Metaplanet in Japan faces financial strain.
BlackRock and Fidelity spot ETFs are still seeing inflows, but they have slowed. After billions poured in over the summer, early October saw several days of net outflows — a sign of fading institutional momentum.
Market Balance and Declining Activity
Data shows a neutral picture: “whales” (1,000–10,000 BTC) accumulate during dips, while “mega-whales” (>10,000 BTC) take profits. Since midyear, the result has been a redistribution — from older, wealthy wallets to newer holders.
As 10x Research notes:
Once legacy-wallet distribution slows and ETF demand stabilizes, prices could recover and trend upward again.
On Polymarket, about 45% of users expect Bitcoin to reach $130,000 by year-end — though few foresee a breakout beyond that level.
Cooling Volumes and New Equilibrium
CryptoQuant data shows daily trading volume down 80% — from $40 billion in February to $7 billion today. Volatility has eased, markets move tighter and more mature. Derivatives show reduced Open Interest and negative funding rates — traders are de-risking.
Calm Before the Next Move
The market feels exhausted — all major drivers are already priced in: ETFs, the halving, and Fed expectations. There are no new stories to attract fresh capital. For mainstream investors, gold and stocks look more appealing. Liquidity and interest in crypto are fading. Bitcoin now stands between two worlds: for some it’s “digital gold,” for others a “tech stock on steroids.” This identity crisis captures today’s market silence — too much macro, too little vision