According to Bitwise’s research team, the BTC market is gradually moving away from the classic four-year cycle that has long shaped price dynamics. “We expect Bitcoin to set new record highs and for the traditional four-year cycle to fade in importance,” the analysts led by the firm’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan state in the forecast.
The report places particular emphasis on structural shifts in demand that are especially relevant for retail investors. Bitwise highlights the sharp rise in institutional interest following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. Since their introduction, the funds have purchased more than 700,000 BTC, while only around 360,000 new coins were issued over the same period. “You don’t need a PhD in economics to see that 710,000 is significantly more than 360,000,” the report notes. This imbalance between supply and demand, according to Bitwise, forms a solid fundamental foundation for further price appreciation.
In addition, the analysts expect Bitcoin’s volatility to continue declining. In 2025, BTC was at times less volatile than Nvidia shares, according to their assessment. “Over the past ten years, Bitcoin’s volatility has consistently decreased,” the experts point out. They cite the expansion of the investor base through regulated financial products—primarily ETFs—as the key driver and believe this trend will persist.
Ultimately, Bitwise identifies several factors simultaneously supporting price growth: sustained institutional capital inflows, progress in regulation, and reduced selling pressure. “The positive trends are too broad and too powerful to be ignored for long,” the analysts conclude. For retail investors, this forecast primarily serves as a data-driven argument that Bitcoin, from the perspective of large asset managers, continues to strengthen its role as a strategic investment asset.