• In early trading, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $104,000, but is slightly lower at publication time. After dipping below $100,000 on Tuesday evening, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to hold and stabilize.

  • The broader market is also showing signs of recovery: XRP is up more than 4%, while ZCash (ZEC) continues its impressive rally. For the first time since January 2018, ZEC moved above $500 despite overbought technical readings.

  • The so-called “privacy renaissance” is spreading to other coins as well: Dash (DASH) is posting triple-digit weekly gains.

  • On-chain metrics point to a potential reversal. According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Bull Score recently fell to 0—a level that historically coincided with macro lows (in 2020 and 2022) or late distribution phases before upside moves.

  • “After such aggressive selling, local bottoms usually follow,” analyst Maartun wrote on X, citing Net-Taker-Volume on Binance. Glassnode likewise describes the current setup as an “oversold market environment”, pointing to softer ETF inflows and cautious options positioning.

  • Nearly one-third of all Bitcoin in circulation is currently held at a loss, per CryptoQuant—a reading more often associated with capitulation phases than with prolonged bear markets. “Such levels often mark local lows within broader up-cycles,” the analysts note.

According to CryptoQuant, nearly one-third of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss
According to CryptoQuant, nearly one-third of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently held at a loss. Source: X

Macro backdrop: markets are watching the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and a Supreme Court case on Donald Trump’s tariffs.

U.S. equity indices rose on Wednesday after the Court questioned the legality of the tariffs. If the ruling favors importers, the government could refund up to $1 trillion, delivering a powerful liquidity impulse to markets.