The reason is a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, which today will determine whether the emergency tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in 2025 were lawful.
The stakes for financial markets are high. If the tariffs are overturned, companies and importers could receive refunds totaling hundreds of billions of dollars. Initial estimates point to at least $133 billion, while in a worst-case scenario repayments could reach as much as $600 billion. Such a payout would represent the largest one-time liquidity injection in U.S. history — supportive for risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies, but highly damaging for the federal budget.
According to Polymarket, the probability of a ruling against the Trump administration is currently estimated at around 77%.
In the Bitcoin futures market, open interest stands at nearly $60 billion, yet implied volatility remains unusually low. This suggests that market participants are bracing for a sharp move once the decision is announced — although the direction remains unclear.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up around 1%, trading near $91,000 with a market capitalization of roughly $1.9 trillion. Most major altcoins are also in positive territory, posting gains in the range of 0.5% to 2%.
