Early in the week, market sentiment improved on expectations that the U.S. government shutdown would soon end. On Sunday, Democratic and Republican senators voted to extend federal funding through January 30, agreeing to drop the expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits in exchange for a December vote on the issue. The House of Representatives later approved the bill, and President Donald Trump signed it, promising a direct payment of at least $2,000 to Americans—excluding high-income households—funded through tariff revenues.
However, the optimism quickly faded as the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve began to decline. Following the last FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for a pause in the current dovish cycle to evaluate previous policy actions. Even traditionally dovish members—such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins—signaled a more cautious stance. Analysts also expect Trump’s “dividend plans” to face resistance in Congress, which could add inflationary pressure and increase the likelihood that the Fed will keep monetary policy unchanged. These factors continue to support the U.S. dollar against its competitors, including digital assets, contributing to ongoing outflows from major crypto ETFs. The market’s Fear & Greed Index has remained in the “fear” zone for several weeks, currently sitting at 16.
Among the top assets, XRP recorded the smallest losses thanks to the launch of the first spot XRP-based ETF by Canary Capital on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPC. The fund’s assets are held by Gemini Trust Co. and BitGo Trust Co., while pricing is determined using the CoinDesk XRP CCIXber index. On its first trading day, XRPC attracted $58.0 million—the strongest debut of any ETF launched this year—reflecting strong trader interest in new instruments and offering some support to XRP, though not enough to shift the broader market trend.
The overall outlook for the crypto market remains challenging. Investors remain cautious about the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining its tighter monetary stance, and most major digital assets may extend their decline or enter a consolidation phase next week.