Historically, October has been strong for Bitcoin—since 2013, the leading cryptocurrency has closed the month in profit in 10 out of 12 years, giving rise to the nickname “Uptober,” according to CoinGlass.

Still, BTC has fallen more than 2.18% in the past 24 hours and is trading around $112,750. 

BTC/USDT hourly chart
BTC/USDT hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The Fear & Greed Index has also retreated to 45- 46, firmly in “fear” territory.

The Fear & Greed Index has also retreated to 45- 46, firmly in “fear” territory.
Source: Alternative.me

Why some still expect “Uptober”

Some analysts think 2025 won’t break the pattern. Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chasse highlighted rising odds of another Fed rate cut next month.

According to CME FedWatch, 91.9% of market participants expect a cut in October. He argued that easier policy is already priced in—and fresh liquidity is “fuel” for crypto.

89.8% of market participants expect the Fed to cut rates in October
89.8% of market participants expect the Fed to cut rates in October. Source: CME FedWatch

Trader “Sykodelic” called the latest drop expected: “As I’ve said, the target is $112,500. When we hit it, skeptics will call the top again. Once the whining peaks, we’ll rip to new highs. That final, powerful phase will kick in—ETH sets fresh records, and altcoins finally feel a real liquidity wave.”

Crypto exchange BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said the market should re-enter growth mode once the U.S. Treasury’s cash balance (TGA) is topped up to the $850 billion target. As of September 20, the TGA stood at $807 billion. “Once liquidity restoration is complete, the uptrend resumes,” he noted.

What the skeptics say

Crypto trader “CasiTrades” believes Bitcoin has topped this cycle. She pointed to BTC losing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $117,900 on September 18—a common inflection for bearish reversals. A clean break below $113,000 would confirm deeper downside, with targets at $96,000 or even $90,000. “The only thing that invalidates this is BTC clearing RSI resistance and printing new ATHs. But we’re seeing classic signs of a market peak here,” she added.

On-chain analyst “Reflection” flagged a repeat of the 2021 pattern, when BTC plunged from an ATH above $69,000 to $32,000. Augustine Fan, head of research at SignalPlus, any bounce is likely to be muted by record-low volatility and slowing ETF inflows, with profit-taking on dips adding pressure. He advised long-term investors to stay patient before expecting new highs.

Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, also questioned the “Uptober” narrative, citing macro uncertainty and the absence of a typical September drawdown. “That said, if the Fed announces more aggressive stimulus, the outlook could shift,” he added.

Bitcoin hasn’t closed October in the red since 2018, when it slipped 3.8%. In past bull cycles, October has been one of its strongest months—posting gains of 48% in 2017 and 40% in 2021. If history rhymes, a comparable move this year could send BTC toward $165,000 from current levels by next month.

10 out of 12 Octobers have been bullish.
10 out of 12 Octobers have been bullish. Source: CoinGlass

Crypto Markets Turn Red

Crypto markets turned red on Monday morning, with total market capitalization shedding $80 billion in just a few hours. Bitcoin dropped to a twelve-day low of $112,000.

Ethereum (ETH) also took a hit, sliding more than 4% to trade below $4,100 — its lowest level in two weeks.