Prediction Markets Surge on Hormuz Strait Risk After U.S.-Iran Escalation

Ethereum Leads Losses as Liquidations Surge

According to CoinGlass data, over $701 million in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, with $618.69 million coming from long positions. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by 4.4% to $3.25 trillion (CoinGecko). Ethereum bore the brunt of the selloff—$296 million in positions were liquidated ($269 million in longs), as ETH fell 7.4% to $2,260. Bitcoin proved relatively resilient, losing just 1.4% to $102,418, with $152 million in liquidations ($125 million in longs). Cardano also stood out among top losers, dropping 7.1%.

Sentiment turned bearish on prediction markets: On Myriad, more than 70% of participants now expect ETH to fall below $2,000 by year-end in the “Rally to $3,000 or drop to $2,000” pool.

Geopolitical Shock: U.S. Strikes and Conflict Escalation

On Sunday, President Trump announced on Truth Social the “very successful” strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites. Pentagon sources reported that B-2 bombers targeted the fortified Fordow facility, while submarine-launched missiles hit Natanz and Isfahan. The actions marked a new escalation in the ongoing standoff between Israel and Iran, with Israel confirming “full coordination” with the U.S.

Trump further warned: “ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE U.S. WILL BE MET WITH A RESPONSE GREATER THAN WHAT YOU SAW TONIGHT.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the attacks and vowed “eternal consequences,” affirming the country’s right to defend its sovereignty by any means necessary.

Prediction Markets: Risk of Hormuz Strait Closure Soars

According to Polymarket, odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by the end of July spiked from 9% to 46% in just one day; the year-end probability now stands at 57% (up from 31%). However, prediction markets remain skeptical about a formal U.S. declaration of war against Iran by July, with odds holding at just 2%.

Conclusion: Volatility Is the New Normal

The events of the past 24 hours highlight crypto’s acute sensitivity to geopolitical shocks and fast-breaking news. Ethereum and Cardano saw the steepest declines among the top-20 assets, while Bitcoin demonstrated relative resilience. Amid escalating regional risks and potential new sanctions, traders and investors should closely monitor liquidity and geopolitical developments.