The US dollar strengthened against the euro, sterling and yen ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28. The Australian dollar outperformed its major peers, while oil slipped as traders weighed Washington’s shift towards economic pressure on Iran.
U.S. stock indices continue their corrective move, with the NQ 100 trading around 23255.0. This week, investor sentiment is shaped by earnings reports from key consumer goods companies.
During the Asian session, NZD/USD is trading around 0.5820, consolidating lower as the U.S. dollar strengthens and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moves ahead with another rate cut, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%.
USD/JPY is pulling back in a downward correction, currently trading near 147.36, as the dollar shows choppy behavior and the yen fails to find support from mid-week macro releases. Fresh data from S&P Global brought some optimism: the manufacturing PMI jumped from 48.9 to 49.9, almost back into growth territory, while forecasts stood at 49.2. The rebound in production came as businesses started to adjust their plans to the new 15% U.S. import tariffs. The services PMI slipped from 53.6 to 52.7, but the composite index held steady, ticking up slightly from 51.6 to 51.9.
On August 19, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded nearly $1 billion in outflows. Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, attributed the withdrawals to macroeconomic uncertainty.
The USD/CHF pair is trading in a corrective trend, consolidating near 0.8070 as it prepares for another local upswing. The Swiss franc continues to underperform against the U.S. dollar, pressured by Washington’s decision to impose 39.0% import tariffs on Swiss goods. While Bern remains committed to dialogue in hopes of revising tariffs, the current focus of U.S. President Donald Trump is not trade policy but negotiations around resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
WTI crude oil continues to trade lower within a long-term descending channel, testing the 62.50 mark (Murray [4/8]) against the backdrop of geopolitical developments and supply-side factors.
During the Asian session, GBP/USD added in value, holding near 1.3513 after Q2 GDP data showed growth of 0.3% versus forecasts of 0.1%. In June, GDP improved from –0.1% to 0.4%. Services, including IT programming, healthcare, and vehicle leasing, were the main drivers of recovery, although business investment fell 4% since the start of the year and consumer spending remains weak. Analysts note that Q1 was supported by “front-loaded actions” from companies building inventories ahead of possible tariffs from the US Republican administration and following changes to stamp duty in real estate. Economists warn that with weak dynamics and high interest rates, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves may resort to significant tax hikes, while the CBI urges not to put the main burden on businesses.
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1680, with momentum tilted upward as eurozone recovery strengthens and demand for the US dollar softens. Euro support came after Q2 GDP slowed from 0.6% to 0.1% q/q and from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y, matching expectations. Positive sentiment was also reinforced by Germany’s call for the US to honor previously agreed lower tariffs on EU autos before finalizing a new trade deal.
The US dollar is gaining ground against the euro, the pound, and the yen. Investors are weighing geopolitical and monetary developments that could shape near-term currency dynamics.
Last week, USD/JPY attempted to decline but managed to break through 146.88 (Murray [6/8]) amid investor expectations of a possible Fed policy pivot, despite hotter U.S. producer prices for July (PPI up from 2.4% to 3.3% y/y, core PPI from 2.6% to 3.7%). On the Japanese side, GDP growth exceeded forecasts in Q2: +0.3% q/q vs. +0.1% expected and +1.0% y/y vs. +0.4% projected. Private consumption rose 0.2% (forecast 0.1%), while capital spending surged 1.3%. These figures highlighted Japan’s economic resilience, raising expectations for potential BoJ rate hikes and boosting the yen.
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