The US dollar strengthened against the euro, sterling and yen ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28. The Australian dollar outperformed its major peers, while oil slipped as traders weighed Washington’s shift towards economic pressure on Iran.
By Sagar Dua USD/TRY is holding within a strong long-term uptrend near 40.6250, as investors digest a new round of mixed macroeconomic signals out of Turkey.
By Sagar Dua EUR/USD continues its corrective trend, trading near 1.1583 in the Asian session. The euro remains neutral, weighed down by weaker-than-expected business activity data across the bloc.
By Sagar Dua The US dollar is strengthening against both the euro and yen, while showing mixed performance versus the British pound. Investor focus is locked on President Donald Trump’s latest comments: in a CNBC interview today, Trump announced new tariffs on semiconductor and microchip imports, aiming to boost US domestic manufacturing capacity. He also warned that tariffs on pharmaceutical imports could ultimately reach as high as 250%, marking the most aggressive measures to date—although any increase would be phased in over the next 18 months.
By Alexander Shares of Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) are trading at the $89.00 mark, consolidating after recent earnings. Management has announced plans to expand with third-party-operated kiosks in high-traffic zones—specifically airport terminals and transportation hubs—aiming to alleviate long queues and maximize profitability in locations with constrained service capacity.
By Sagar Dua EUR/USD is trading near the midline of the Bollinger Bands at 1.1640 in the Asian session, with a breakout above this level likely to accelerate bullish momentum towards 1.1841 and 1.1963. Investors are reassessing the monetary policy outlook after the European Central Bank (ECB) left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% on July 24, following eight consecutive 25bps rate cuts over the past year. The ECB now projects eurozone CPI at 2.6% over the next 12 months, up from 2.1%, with medium- and long-term forecasts at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively.
By Sagar Dua The GBP/USD pair is consolidating near 1.3286 as traders await the Bank of England’s key interest rate decision on Thursday (8:00 AM ET). According to Bank of America and other leading analysts, there is a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut—from 4.25% to 4.00%—which would mark the lowest level since January 2023.
By Sagar Dua The US dollar is under pressure against the British pound and shows mixed performance versus the yen and euro as traders digest the latest July jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls disappointed at 77,000 versus the expected 106,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Last month’s figure was revised sharply lower, signaling labor market cooling. Rising inflation risk keeps the Federal Reserve on alert, with most analysts expecting at least one rate cut before year-end.
By Sagar Dua Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade below the $3,500–$3,430 resistance zone for the fourth consecutive month, signaling an exhaustion of the prior uptrend. Following the White House’s announcement of new tariffs on imports in early April, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset surged. However, a 90-day moratorium on the sanctions reduced immediate risks and prompted some investors to reduce gold allocations. As the US administration has since reached trade agreements with key partners—including Japan, the UK, EU, South Korea, and several Asian countries—market confidence in equities has been restored, softening demand for bullion.
By Sagar Dua The USD/CHF pair lost ground last week after failing to break above the 0.8150 resistance, driven by the release of US labor data. Unemployment edged up to 4.2%, while payrolls rose by just 77,000—well below the 106,000 forecast. The June figure was sharply revised from 147,000 to just 14,000. Healthcare saw the largest job gains (+55,000), while government employment declined by 12,000. Average hourly earnings matched expectations, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year.
By Sagar Dua The AUD/USD pair is consolidating in a mild uptrend near 0.6483 in early Asia trading, with the Australian dollar maintaining its positive momentum after last Friday’s sharp decline in the greenback. Economic activity in Australia is showing modest improvement: according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in June, down from 0.9% last quarter and below the 0.9% consensus. On a yearly basis, PPI came in at 3.4% versus 3.7% previously—the lowest since 2021. Real estate services (+1.1%) and food production (+8.4%) led price gains, while oil refining plunged -9.0% as crude prices hit a four-year low. Both wholesale and consumer inflation are slowing, increasing the likelihood of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
By Sagar Dua The NZD/USD pair is correcting near 0.5917, pressured by a broad pullback in the US dollar and soft data from New Zealand. Investors are digesting the latest building permits report from Stats NZ: seasonally adjusted permits fell by 6.4% in June after a prior 10.0% rise. For the year ending in June, total consents increased by 1.0% to 33,979, while non-residential construction value dropped 0.9% to $9.0 billion NZD. Among 2,627 new residential units approved, 1,302 were standalone homes, 1,169 were townhouses, 116 were apartments, and 40 were retirement units—figures now back to 2018–2020 averages and still well below the 2022 peak.
By Sagar Dua The US Dollar Index (USDX), tracking the dollar against a basket of global currencies, is consolidating near 98.57—off last month’s high at 100.00—as markets digest new personnel moves from President Donald Trump. On August 1, Trump dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McEntarfer over allegations of job data manipulation tied to the record June jobs revision (-258,000). This perceived stability in labor market data had been one reason the Fed held rates steady for so long. Fed Board member Adriana Kugler was also removed amid suspicions of internal collusion. These actions are increasing political scrutiny of economic agencies and signal that data assessments may shift going forward.
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