Forex Market Review: Dollar Firms, German Ifo Rises
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair is rising in the Asian session, extending last week’s bullish momentum as the U.S. dollar comes under pressure from expectations of lower borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is an 80.0% probability of a 25 bp cut at the September 17 meeting. The Fed could cut two more times by the end of 2025 and by a total of 125 bp by September 2026.
The Australian dollar is showing mixed momentum against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session, refreshing local highs from August 14. Trading remains cautious with U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, while attention stays on data from Australia and China. The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.9 to 53.0 in August. Building permits fell 8.2% m/m in July after a 12.2% increase the prior month, and slowed from 27.4% to 6.6% y/y. On Wednesday at 03:30 (GMT+2), Q2 GDP for Australia is due; markets forecast an acceleration from 0.2% to 0.5% q/q. In China, the manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.5. Over the weekend, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported its own readings: manufacturing rose from 49.3 to 49.4 (vs. 49.5 expected) and services/construction ticked up from 50.1 to 50.3.
XAU/USD continues its upward movement during the morning session, extending the strong bullish trend established last week. The instrument is testing the 3475.00 level to the upside, updating local highs from April 22.
The U.S. dollar is once again trading mixed against the Japanese yen, attempting to hold above the psychological level of 147.00. The pair remains under pressure from expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting borrowing costs. On September 17, investors anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut with around an 80% probability, amid relatively stable consumer inflation and signs of a slowing U.S. economy.
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The shares of Hewlett-Packard Co., a manufacturer of computer hardware, continue to move in a corrective trend at 28.00.
WTI crude oil prices have been attempting to recover lost ground for the second consecutive week, trading near 63.90 amid fading hopes for a quick resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and declining U.S. oil inventories.
This week, the USD/CAD pair lost 0.56%, dropping to 1.3755 amid positive Canadian data and rising oil prices.
The UK stock market remains in an unstable upward trend, slightly slowing its growth amid the conclusion of the corporate reporting season and signals of a possible pause in the Bank of England’s dovish cycle. FTSE 100 quotes are gaining in value, trading at 9227.0, largely supported by corrections in the bond market.
The USD/CHF pair is trading in a corrective trend at 0.8025 amid weak data on the Swiss economy in Q2
During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is correcting within an upward trend at 0.6538, supported by the weakening US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia.
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is correcting around 1.3500. The pound is holding at the levels of the beginning of the week only thanks to the negative trend of the US dollar, while there are no fundamental reasons for its volatile fluctuations.
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