Dollar Slips and Oil Falls as Markets Reprice Fed and Iran Risks
United States. The US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese yen today while posting moderate losses against the euro and the British pound.
Markets
15
December
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By Sagar Dua - 314
EUR/USD. The European currency is showing mixed performance against the US dollar, consolidating near the 1.1730 level. Market activity remains relatively subdued as investors await the release of key US labor market data for November, scheduled for tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2).
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is losing ground against the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY pair testing the 155.15 level to the downside. However, investors remain cautious and are refraining from opening new positions ahead of the key US Department of Labor report for November, scheduled for release tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2). October data was not published at all, while the upcoming figures are delayed due to the impact of the government shutdown.
Stronger-than-expected labor market data could force markets to reassess expectations regarding future easing by the Federal Reserve, while weaker numbers may prompt the regulator to revise its interest rate outlook, which currently implies only one rate cut in 2026. Investors, however, are pricing in two rate adjustments, with the final outcome largely dependent on labor market conditions and leadership changes at the Fed. Jerome Powell’s second four-year term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026, and one of the leading candidates to succeed him is White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett. According to Bloomberg, Hassett shares President Donald Trump’s economic views and supports the continuation of a dovish Federal Reserve policy stance.
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By Sagar Dua
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The GBP/USD pair is correcting near the 1.3357 level, as the pound gradually loses upside momentum following the release of December UK housing market data. The figures highlight growing uncertainty linked to the indexation of property taxes across multiple housing categories under the new government budget.
14
December
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By Sagar Dua
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Morgan Stanley Gold Price Forecast for 2026: Target of $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year
13
December
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By Sagar Dua
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Brent crude oil prices ended the week at $59.97 per barrel, up 0.82%, extending a modest rebound after briefly dipping into the $58 area earlier in the week. Despite the uptick, analysts caution that the recent move does little to change the broader picture of a weakening oil market heading into 2026.
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By Sagar Dua
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The euro to US dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate ended the week near 1.1740, easing slightly as investors reassessed expectations around monetary policy at major central banks. According to Nomura analysts, the European Central Bank could become one of the few G10 regulators in 2026 for which markets begin to seriously price the risk of policy tightening. Such a scenario could lend support to the euro, although the upside potential remains limited.
12
December
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By Sagar Dua
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The US dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, and the yen.
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By Sagar Dua
- 510
The euro to US dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is trading around 1.17311, showing a modest decline in early Friday trading as investors reassess the central bank signals delivered this week and adopt a cautious stance ahead of fresh monetary policy guidance.
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By Sagar Dua
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The USD/JPY pair is trading near 155.94 within a long-term uptrend, forming a corresponding ascending channel. This week, prices reached the upper boundary of the channel but failed to break higher.
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By Sagar Dua
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The euro to US dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is trading around 1.17552, remaining within a relatively narrow range ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and failing to firmly break above the 1.17 level.
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By Sagar Dua
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The pound posted a notable rebound following the release of the UK budget, as investors were relieved by the absence of major unexpected tax hikes. The move was also supported by the unwinding of a significant share of short sterling positions and a reduction in pessimism across the options market.
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By Sagar Dua
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The Bank of England may begin an easing cycle as early as the 18 December meeting. According to Goldman Sachs, the regulator is likely to cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in response to a rapid weakening in the labour market and an expected slowdown in inflation in 2025.
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