The US dollar strengthened against the euro, sterling and yen ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28. The Australian dollar outperformed its major peers, while oil slipped as traders weighed Washington’s shift towards economic pressure on Iran.
During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is correcting within an upward trend at 0.6538, supported by the weakening US dollar and positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia.
During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is correcting around 1.3500. The pound is holding at the levels of the beginning of the week only thanks to the negative trend of the US dollar, while there are no fundamental reasons for its volatile fluctuations.
The U.S. dollar is losing value on the forex market against major competitors — the yen, the euro, and the pound. Today’s forex forecast and weekly outlook are focused on macroeconomic data and central bank signals.
Since the beginning of the month, the USD/CHF pair has been trading within a sideways range of 0.8118–0.7996 (Murray levels [7/8]–[3/8]), approaching its lower boundary amid growing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
At the beginning of the month, the EUR/USD pair entered a sideways range of 1.1719–1.1597 (Murray levels [8/8]–[6/8]), where it is currently trading. This is mainly due to growing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next steps and conflicting signals from policymakers.
The XAU/USD pair rose to 3395.00 and is moving toward the 3430.00 target in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17 meeting. Last week, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the baseline forecast for the economy and a shifting balance of risks may require monetary policy adjustments, while labor market stability allows policymakers to act cautiously. Investors interpreted his comments as negative for the dollar and priced in an 87.0% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
The German stock market is holding mid-month gains and remains near its highs despite soft earnings from index constituents: DAX 40 quotes are correcting at 24,080.0, supported by macro data. In August, the expectations index rose from 90.8 to 91.6, and the business climate index improved from 88.6 to 89.0—still below the “green” zone above 100.0, but recent months point to gradual acceleration. Some sectors show negative signals: the GfK consumer climate index, a leading indicator of household spending, fell to –23.6 in August from –21.7 previously. In the bond market—supportive for risk appetite—yields remain in the “red” zone: the 10-year fell to 2.701% from 2.752% last week, and the 20-year to 3.188% from 3.234%.
During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair corrected around 1.3780. The Canadian dollar managed to recover after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell effectively confirmed intentions to begin lowering borrowing costs in September.
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