The governance token ASTER gained more than 20% within one day after the trading platform Aster announced a major change to its tokenomics. In the future, 99% of all daily platform fees will be used to buy back ASTER on the open market. The announcement triggered a strong price increase and significantly raised trading volume.

In addition, Aster plans to combine every token bought back through fees with a corresponding reduction in reserves. As a result, the total supply is expected to decline from eight billion to three billion ASTER over the long term. The repurchased tokens will not be burned but distributed to participants in the loyalty program.

Can the supply reduction sustainably drive the Aster price higher?

Aster chart outlook

Over the last 12–24 hours, the Aster price fluctuated between 0.636 dollars, the low, and 0.727 dollars, the high, on the last three 4-hour candles. The current closing price is 0.678 dollars, slightly above the level seen 24 hours earlier at 0.669 dollars. The strong intraday spike to 0.803 dollars on 17.06 created increased volatility; since then, the price has been consolidating within the mentioned range. Market capitalization stands at around 1,810,384,240 dollars, placing the coin in the mid-cap category.

The price is trading just above the EMA-20 at 0.674 dollars, which provides short-term support. After the high at 0.803 dollars, lower highs followed: 0.803 → 0.727 → 0.679. Recently, a higher low at 0.669 dollars appeared, pointing to early stabilization. Specific support levels are located at 0.636 dollars and the EMA-20 at 0.674 dollars, while resistance levels are at 0.727 dollars and 0.803 dollars. As long as the price remains above the EMA, the outlook stays neutral to slightly bullish.

Momentum check

The RSI is around 58.0 and is in the neutral to slightly bullish zone. The histogram has shown a slowdown in acceleration since the spike, indicating cooling momentum after the rally.

The Bollinger Band width is around 0.120 dollars, with the upper band near 0.731 dollars and the lower band near 0.611 dollars, signaling moderately expanded fluctuations. After the intraday breakout, the market is in a volatile consolidation phase, so the short-term risk of range breaks is elevated.

Short-term forecast

In the short term, the forecast remains neutral to slightly bullish: the price is above the EMA-20 but volatility is elevated. Key support levels are located at 0.636 dollars and 0.674 dollars, the EMA-20, while immediate resistance levels are at 0.727 dollars and 0.803 dollars.

A sustained breakout above 0.727 dollars would open room toward 0.803 dollars and stabilize momentum, which is the bullish scenario. A break below 0.636 dollars would likely increase downside pressure and initiate a pullback toward 0.588 dollars, the Fibonacci starting point, which is the bearish scenario.

Neutral scenario

The target range is between 0.64 and 0.72 dollars, with a probability of 45%. This scenario is triggered by sideways consolidation between the EMA-20 and resistance at 0.727 dollars, while the RSI remains between 50 and 60 and the Bollinger Band width stabilizes.

Bullish scenario

The target range is between 0.73 and 0.80 dollars, with a probability of 30%. The trigger is a sustained breakout above 0.727 dollars, accompanied by an RSI increase above 60 and rising trading volume during the breakout.

Bearish scenario

The target range is between 0.58 and 0.64 dollars, with a probability of 25%. This scenario is triggered by a daily close below 0.636 dollars on rising volume, an RSI decline below 50, and a break of the lower Bollinger Band.