The joint study by Ark Invest and financial services firm Unchained explores possible risks to the security of the Bitcoin network related to advances in quantum computing. According to the report’s authors, approximately 34.6% of the total Bitcoin supply could eventually become vulnerable to attacks carried out with quantum computers.
At the same time, the analysis shows that about 65.4% of existing Bitcoin are currently not under direct threat. The potentially vulnerable share mainly includes several categories of older address types.
Roughly five million Bitcoin are considered potentially migratable because the associated addresses have been reused. Another approximately 1.7 million BTC are stored in so-called P2PK addresses. In addition, the authors estimate that around 200,000 Bitcoin could be exposed due to the Pay-to-Taproot address type.
A successful attack would only be possible if quantum computers were capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography that secures Bitcoin. According to the report, this would require around 2,330 logical qubits and billions of computational operations. However, the authors note that such systems are unlikely to appear in the near term: “According to our analysis, the practical implementation of such technologies will still require considerable time.”
The report therefore classifies the development as a long-term risk. Progress in quantum research is expected to occur gradually and would likely produce numerous warning signals long before any real threat to the Bitcoin network emerges.
According to the authors’ estimates, the first public key might be cracked by a quantum computer no earlier than the mid-2030s. Nevertheless, in the long term the Bitcoin network may eventually need to transition to so-called post-quantum cryptography.
Conclusion
Despite the theoretical risks, the threat of quantum computers to Bitcoin remains a long-term scenario and is unlikely to materialize in the near future. However, as quantum technology evolves, the community may eventually need to adopt post-quantum cryptography to maintain the network’s security.
