The sector’s performance was shaped by geopolitical factors. The initial rise in demand for risk assets was driven by signals suggesting a possible near-term end to hostilities between the United States and Iran. However, when those expectations failed to materialize, most assets seen as alternatives to the dollar returned to decline. US President Donald Trump first said that successful negotiations with Tehran were underway, then stated that the operation could end within 2–3 weeks and that the United States could withdraw without signing a peace deal or reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading investors to assume that energy markets might stabilize. By Wednesday, however, the White House tone had shifted again, and in an address to the nation Trump promised attacks on the Islamic Republic’s energy and industrial infrastructure. This increased pressure on the global recovery outlook, and crypto asset prices began to retreat. BTC, in particular, lost around 2.0% in a single day.
Signals regarding future Federal Reserve policy also remain mixed. Speaking at Harvard, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there is currently no need to raise interest rates, since inflation expectations remain stable despite rising energy prices. At the same time, most Fed officials and market experts believe that substantial risks of faster consumer price growth remain, as reflected in a 30.0% increase in gasoline prices and a 40.0% rise in diesel prices last month. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), March labor market data will be released. Forecasts suggest the unemployment rate will remain at 4.4%, while nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 65.0K. That would signal continued labor market stability and raise the likelihood that current credit conditions will remain unchanged, strengthening the dollar against alternative assets, including digital ones.
This week also saw the largest hack of the year, targeting Drift Protocol, the leading decentralized perpetual futures exchange on the Solana blockchain. Client losses totaled 285.0 million dollars, while the native DRIFT token fell by 45.0%. According to management, the code and core technical systems were not compromised. Instead, the attackers gained access to administrative addresses and misled employees. The hacker’s accounts were not frozen in time, allowing the stolen funds to be converted into other assets. Meanwhile, Solana developers launched testing of a new platform designed to simplify the creation of financial products on its blockchain. Early users include major payment companies such as Mastercard Inc., The Western Union Co, and Worldpay Inc. The SDP project is a toolkit that allows applications to be built on Solana without deep technical expertise, using AI tools such as Claude Code from Anthropic PBC and Codex from OpenAI. In addition, crypto exchange Coinbase received conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter regulated at the federal level, significantly expanding the platform’s ability to attract institutional investors.
Overall, conditions in the sector remain difficult, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. The Fear and Greed Index is in the “extreme fear” zone at 9, and under these conditions, most key assets may continue to decline or move into consolidation next week.
