Most Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized that inflation remains above the 2.0% target, and the need to balance labor market cooling with persistent price pressures rules out sharp interest rate cuts. Moreover, U.S. GDP grew by 3.8% in Q2, beating forecasts of 3.3%, confirming that the economy does not yet require additional stimulus. This shift in sentiment led to the liquidation of over $4.0 billion in short positions, while the “fear and greed” index slipped to 28.
чNevertheless, major crypto assets are showing renewed positive momentum: ETH is now trading near 4200.00, supported by an increase in Ethereum inflows to $546.9 million and a surge in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes on Ethereum from $22.9 billion to $33.9 billion. Additional support comes from a shrinking token supply, which, according to Cointelegraph, has dropped to its lowest level since 2016 due to growing institutional accumulation.
As a result, the short-term outlook for ETH/USD recovery remains intact.
Support and Resistance Levels
If the middle Bollinger Band at 4375.00 (Murray level [6/8]) is breached, ETH/USD could return to its long-term uptrend channel and advance toward 4687.50 (Murray [7/8]) and 5000.00 (Murray [8/8]). Conversely, a breakdown below 3750.00 (Murray [4/8]) would open the way for further correction toward 3125.00 (Murray [2/8], 50.0% Fibonacci retracement) and 2812.50 (Murray [1/8]).
Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, the MACD histogram is declining in the negative zone, while Stochastic is pointing upward.
Resistance levels: 4375.00, 4687.50, 5000.00.
Support levels: 3750.00, 3125.00, 2812.50.
Trading Scenarios and Ethereum Price Forecast
Long positions may be opened above 4375.00 with targets at 4687.50 and 5000.00, and a stop-loss at 4130.00. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.
Short positions may be considered below 3750.00 with targets at 3125.00 and 2812.50, and a stop-loss at 4070.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 4380.00 |
| Take Profit | 4687.50, 5000.00 |
| Stop Loss | 4130.00 |
| Key Levels | 2812.50, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 4687.50, 5000.00 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 3745.00 |
| Take Profit | 3125.00, 2812.50 |
| Stop Loss | 4070.00 |
| Key Levels | 2812.50, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 4687.50, 5000.00 |