Data from @Morecryptoonl and Coinglass shows ETH is locked into a clear Elliott Wave cycle, while CoinMarketCap reports a spike in activity. Some analysts on X even joked that if ETH touches $4700, nearly $13.22B in shorts could go up in flames. The real battle zone is set between $4400–$4600, where liquidity clusters are stacked thick with sellers.
Elliott Wave Points to a Breakout
ETH recently printed wave 4 near $4061, right at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. After swinging through $3665–$3374, it bounced back to $4307, keeping the bullish structure intact. Wave iii topped out at $4612 (78.6% Fib), and if a 1-2 setup plays out, the next targets line up at $5233, $5815, and $6406. The farthest Fibonacci extension even teases $6922.
Right now, ETH is stuck in a tug-of-war: resistance sits heavy in the yellow channel, while the 200-day moving average keeps the floor intact. The key question is simple — does ETH blast toward $6K, or fold under pressure?
Funding Rates Tell the Story
According to CoinGlass, funding rates have been swinging wildly between –0.0100% and +0.0200%. Back in July, they stayed positive for weeks, fueling ETH’s run from $3K to over $5.3K. But in September, they flipped negative, dragging ETH back toward $3K. Now things have cooled into neutral — traders are split down the middle, bullish breakout or bearish slide.
Liquidity Heatmap: The $4700 Trap
Order book heatmaps show massive sell walls at $4400–$4600. Break through that, and ETH could rip higher. On the flip side, support is thin around $3800–$4000, making sharp drops possible if sellers push harder.
One analyst called the potential short squeeze at $4700 “biblical” — with $13.22B worth of shorts at risk of liquidation. If that level breaks, fireworks are almost guaranteed.
As of now, ETH trades at $4308 with a $519.9B market cap and $44B in 24h volume. Buyers already pushed it from $4167 to $4280, and momentum suggests another retest of $4300 is just around the corner.