The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to approve several spot crypto ETFs this month — and Solana (SOL) is next in line. According to a JPMorgan report released Wednesday, the regulator’s move will likely mirror its earlier approvals of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year.

Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted that Solana’s existing futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the July launch of the REX Osprey Solana ETF make approval almost inevitable. The SEC’s final deadline for a decision is October 10, and market sentiment leans overwhelmingly positive. Bloomberg’s ETF expert Eric Balchunas even called the odds of approval “as close to 100% as it gets.”

JPMorgan’s Cautious Forecast

Despite the optimism, JPMorgan predicts only $1.5 billion in inflows during the first year — far below the $9.6 billion Ethereum ETFs attracted in their debut. Analysts say early data from REX Osprey Solana ETF, which has already drawn around $350 million, supports this modest outlook.

They also point to a few concerns: falling on-chain activity, a flood of memecoin speculation, and overall investor fatigue after months of nonstop ETF launches. Institutional funds and index products like S&P Dow Jones Digital Markets 50 could further dilute Solana-specific demand by spreading capital across broader crypto baskets.

Sentiment and Market Signals

Investor enthusiasm is cooling. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) premium has dropped nearly 750% over the past year — now hovering around zero, similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts before they converted to spot ETFs.

Weak demand for CME Solana futures also reinforces this cautious stance. Analysts believe Solana’s strong fundamentals — low fees and high speed — aren’t yet enough to challenge Ethereum’s dominance in the DeFi and smart contract ecosystem.

Broader Crypto ETF Landscape

If approved, Solana ETFs will join a growing roster of institutional crypto products, as the SEC eyes up to 16 new spot ETFs in the coming months. Following the success of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and Ethereum ETFs in May 2024, Solana’s inclusion marks another step toward mainstream digital asset adoption.

Still, while Solana ranks sixth by market cap and continues to attract developer activity, JPMorgan expects investors to remain selective — favoring Ethereum’s proven ecosystem over Solana’s younger, faster, but more volatile network.