While the project’s long-term vision is increasingly being called into question, the technical picture is sending a clear signal. Against the backdrop of recent developments, Optimism may be forced to consider a rebranding. The Layer-2 project is under pressure from multiple directions at once.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently publicly criticized the entire Layer-2 roadmap. Shortly afterward, Coinbase’s Base L2 network announced its intention to leave the Optimism Superchain ecosystem.

The significance of this departure is hard to overstate: according to Blockworks, Base accounts for around 95% of the Real Economic Value of the entire Superchain collective. The OP price reacted accordingly — down 30% over the past seven days.

Source: blockworks.com
Source: blockworks.com

In the background, a technical strategic conflict is also emerging. Following Buterin’s criticism, the Ethereum Foundation may pursue a unification of the L2 landscape, with zkEVMs positioned as the preferred standard. In that case, optimistic rollups — including Optimism and Arbitrum — could find themselves at a technical disadvantage. The ARB price has also declined noticeably.

OP Labs CEO Jing Wang pushed back against the narrative of the project’s decline. According to him, the Unified Base Stack still shares 99% of its code with the OP Stack.

“If you want the most scalable, reliable, and production-proven stack, that’s the OP Stack,” Wang wrote on X.
“If you want the most scalable, reliable, and production-proven stack, that’s the OP Stack,” Wang wrote on X

OP Analysis

For investors, the key question is whether Optimism’s technical foundation can offset the reputational damage, or whether Base’s departure represents a structural break that fundamentally challenges the Superchain model. In the short term, the technical picture has clearly deteriorated.

Over the past 12–24 hours, the price has moved within a range of 0.1278–0.1402 USD (high/low of the last 3–6 four-hour candles). The current closing price stands at 0.1317 USD, below the previous level of 0.1397 USD, signaling a short-term decline. Market capitalization is currently around 276.6 million USD, confirming notable selling pressure despite the relatively small market cap.

The price is firmly below the EMA-20 (0.15685 USD), with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows forming a short-term downtrend.
The price remains firmly below the EMA-20 (0.15685 USD), while a sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirms a short-term bearish structure.

Support levels: 0.1278 USD (current daily low) and 0.11715 USD (lower Bollinger Band).

Resistance levels: 0.1402 USD (latest intraday high) and 0.15685 USD (EMA-20).

As long as the price remains below the EMA-20, the technical outlook stays bearish.

The RSI is estimated at around 26.5, indicating oversold conditions. The momentum histogram shows accelerating downside pressure, with negative momentum persisting.

The Bollinger Band width is currently about 0.09410 USD, pointing to elevated short-term volatility. The market is in a tense bearish phase, with an increased risk of further downside breakouts.

Short-term outlook and conclusion for OP

The short-term outlook for OP as of 20.02.2026 remains bearish to neutral, as the price is trading below the EMA-20 and momentum remains weak.

Supports: 0.1278 USD and 0.11715 USD.

Resistances: 0.1402 USD and 0.15685 USD.

A sustained break above 0.15685 USD would reduce short-term risks, while a move below 0.11715 USD would increase the likelihood of an extension of the downward move.