SOL/USD Forecast — Solana Faces Pressure Amid ETF Delay and Trade Tensions

The initial price rebound was driven by the launch of CME Group’s new options linked to SOL and XRP futures. The exchange expanded its cryptocurrency derivatives lineup, giving traders new tools for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies. This development attracted major institutional participants such as Galaxy, Wintermute, Cumberland, DRW, and SuperState. However, bearish sentiment soon returned due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Last week, Chinese authorities tightened controls on the export of rare-earth metals — a move that could hurt technology industries, including AI and crypto mining. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports. These “trade wars” heighten the risk of an economic slowdown, prompting investors to shift away from risk assets and back into the U.S. dollar. Notably, the Republican administration’s current tariffs on key Chinese equipment already reach 57.6%, while parts produced in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand face 21.6% duties. With further increases expected, traders are showing caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 28, indicating fear-dominated sentiment.

Additional pressure on SOL comes from uncertainty around the SEC’s pending approval of spot Solana ETFs. Applications from Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and VanEck were expected to be reviewed last week, but the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the decision.

Overall, fundamental factors point toward continued bearish movement in the near term.

Support and Resistance Levels

The asset is trading within a long-term upward channel, approaching its lower boundary. A breakdown below the 187.50–183.80 support zone (Murray level [4/8], 50% Fibonacci correction) would likely lead to a deeper decline toward 165.70 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 140.62 (Murray level [1/8]). Conversely, if the price breaks above 218.75 (Murray level [6/8]) and surpasses the midline of the Bollinger Bands, an upward correction may extend toward 234.38 (Murray [7/8]) and 250.00 (Murray [8/8]).

Technical indicators continue to signal selling pressure: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, the MACD histogram is widening in the negative zone, and the Stochastic oscillator is moving sideways.

Resistance levels: 218.75, 234.38, 250.00.

Support levels: 183.80, 165.70, 140.62.

Trading Scenarios and SOL/USD Forecast

Short positions can be opened below 183.80 with targets at 165.70 and 140.62, setting a stop-loss at 197.00. Estimated duration: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 218.75 with targets at 234.38 and 250.00, and a stop-loss at 208.00.