Solana Struggles to Break Out as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Lift SOL

Several Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Mary Daly, have expressed concerns about weakening labor market conditions and have acknowledged the potential need for monetary easing in the near future. In addition, September retail sales data showed a slowdown from 0.6% to 0.2%, indicating possible cooling in overall economic activity and further supporting a more dovish outlook. Against this backdrop, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting has increased from 30.0% to 85.0%, which has provided support to assets alternative to the U.S. dollar. Additional support for Solana comes from Wormhole Labs’ launch of the new Sunrise platform, designed to serve as a unified access point for new digital assets on the Solana blockchain, streamline user interaction with tokens in the ecosystem, and provide seamless, high-liquidity access to the network.

Despite the current price recovery, overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains negative: the Fear and Greed Index is still in the “Extreme Fear” zone at 22, and for the first time since launch, the Solana ETF recorded a daily outflow of USD 8.2 million, although the broader trend across crypto instruments remains positive.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument continues to correct within a medium-term downtrend. A break above 165.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) could allow the price to exit the current range and extend gains toward 200.00 (Murray level [8/8], 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and 250.00 (Murray level [+2/8]). However, a downside break below the already tested level of 125.00 (Murray level [5/8]) would likely resume the decline toward 100.00 (Murray level [4/8]), 75.00 (Murray level [–3/8]), and 50.00 (Murray level [2/8]).

Technical indicators continue to point to a sell signal: the Bollinger Bands are trending lower, the MACD histogram is contracting in negative territory, and the Stochastic oscillator has entered the overbought zone and could turn lower.

Resistance levels: 165.70, 200.00, 250.00.

Support levels: 125.00, 100.00, 75.00, 50.00.

Trading Scenarios and SOL Price Forecast

Short positions may be opened below 125.00 with targets at 100.00, 75.00 and 50.00 and a stop-loss at 142.90. Timeframe: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 165.70 with targets at 200.00 and 250.00 and a stop-loss at 145.00.