Whales are moving — and the market is watching
Whale Alert spotted a whole series of big transfers: two transactions of 833,351 SOL each (roughly $156 million per move) between unidentified wallets, plus three more transactions of about 308,517 SOL (≈$57.7 million) that went straight to Coinbase.
Moves of this size usually don’t happen “just because.” When coins go to an exchange, the market thinks “maybe sell.” When they rotate between fresh wallets, the market thinks “maybe OTC, maybe custody, maybe staking.” Here we got both, and fast — which looks a lot like positioning ahead of volatility. The timing is also curious: Solana spot ETFs in the U.S. are seeing steady institutional inflows, so big holders could be preparing for liquidity shifts.
ETF money keeps coming, network stays busy
Bitwise’s Solana ETF (BSOL) reported a single-day inflow of $44.48 million, taking total net flows to $197 million. Together with the REX-Osprey Solana & Staking ETF (SSK), Solana products now control more than $700 million in assets.
That tells us one thing: big money still likes SOL — even if retail traders are calmer right now. On-chain, Solana is running hot: about 70 million transactions per day, roughly $143 billion in monthly DEX volume, 1,295 validators in 40 countries, and a Nakamoto Coefficient of 20 — decent decentralization for a high-throughput chain. Current throughput is around 1,100 TPS.
Recent upgrades also helped: stake-based traffic control, early Firedancer testing, and changes to validator rewards all reduced congestion. Still, Solana’s local-fee system means users can overpay (or underpay) when specific hotspots on the network get busy.
Exchanges show a tug-of-war
Coinglass data shows that from mid-September to early October, exchanges saw a back-and-forth pattern: strong green inflow spikes of $60–90 million when SOL was trading in the $240–$260 zone.
But after October 5, the picture flipped: heavy outflows (often >$60 million) came together with a price drop from $240 to ~$180 — classic profit-taking plus liquidity rotation. At the end of October, about $80 million flowed back in, SOL bounced toward $220… and then sellers stepped in again.
So the market isn’t in “all in” mode. Traders are still moving coins off exchanges — either to sit in wallets or to restake. If outflows continue, a slide back into the $170–$180 zone is realistic. If we see another strong inflow wave — $50 million or more — SOL could retest $220–$240.
Derivatives confirm the choppiness: in the last 24 hours, around $5.9 million in SOL futures got liquidated — $3 million in longs, $2.8 million in shorts. That’s rare, because it shows pressure on both sides. Binance led in liquidations, followed by Bybit and OKX.
Chart says: momentum got dented
From May to late June, SOL mostly sat under the 50-day moving average — a sleepy consolidation. In July, the 50DMA started climbing toward the 200DMA, and by late August the market confirmed a proper golden cross when SOL pushed above $220. That’s when attention came back.
Then October happened. The drop from $240 to ~$185 pushed the 50DMA back under the 200DMA, and daily active addresses slipped to ~2.4 million — so momentum cooled. For bulls, the roadmap is simple: more on-chain activity → 50DMA turns up again → reclaim $200–$204 → talk about continuation. For bears, holding price below $190 opens up $175.
Bottom line
The synchronized $425 million SOL shuffle is the market telling us: “big players are moving pieces.” At the same time we see ETF inflows, whale transfers, and slightly weaker network usage. That’s a classic “balance point” between accumulation and distribution. Watch the $180–$200 zone — if money keeps leaving exchanges, we test lower. If fresh capital comes in fast, SOL gets another shot at $220–$240.
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