XRP/USD Outlook: Institutional ETF Inflows and Fed Policy Drive Bullish Momentum

Investors are actively returning to trading after the New Year holiday break, amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish monetary stance in the near term. The most rapid reduction in borrowing costs is forecast as early as spring, when the four-year term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell comes to an end. The leading candidate to succeed him is Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council and a close ally of President Donald Trump. He is widely expected to advocate policies aligned with the Republican administration, which in the long run could place significant pressure on the US dollar and strengthen alternative assets, including digital currencies.

XRP is also receiving substantial support from a sharp increase in institutional investor activity, as capital is being actively redirected into spot Ripple ETFs. As a result, the total assets held in these funds exceeded $1.0 billion in less than two months since their launch. Notably, there has not been a single instance of net outflows from these instruments since November 13, the ETF launch date, underscoring their resilience and growing popularity among market participants.

At the same time, investors are closely monitoring debates in the US Senate, which is approaching approval of the Crypto Market Structure Act, based on the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act already passed by the House of Representatives. A vote is expected as early as next week. The legislation предусматривает a formal division of regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to sources cited by Politico, lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties have resolved most contentious issues, although several disagreements remain unresolved. These include rules governing the use of cryptocurrencies by senior government officials, the regulatory status of DeFi assets, and whether stablecoins should be allowed to generate passive income. Nevertheless, work on this foundational framework for the crypto industry is nearing completion, increasing the likelihood of new investors entering the market.

Support and resistance levels

Technically, the instrument is attempting to shift its medium-term trend. Prices have already exited the descending channel by breaking above its upper boundary, while remaining close to the 2.3437 level (Murray [4/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A decisive breakout above this area would open the way toward 2.5390 (Murray [6/8]) and 2.7880 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

For bears, the key level is seen at 1.9531 (Murray [0/8]), reinforced by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. A break below this level could allow the price to continue falling toward 1.6420 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 1.4180 (one of the 2021 peaks), and 1.1718 (Murray [3/8], W1).

Technical indicators do not provide a unified signal: Bollinger Bands are turning upward, the MACD histogram is expanding in positive territory—confirming the formation of a short-term bullish trend—while the Stochastic oscillator is preparing to exit the overbought zone.

Resistance levels: 2.3437, 2.5390, 2.7880.

Support levels: 1.9531, 1.6420, 1.4180, 1.1718.

Trading scenarios and XRP/USD outlook

Long positions may be opened above 2.3437 with targets at 2.5390 and 2.7880, and a stop-loss at 2.1950. Time horizon: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.9531 with targets at 1.6420, 1.4180, and 1.1718, and a stop-loss at 2.0920.