A mini financial crisis and the outlook for Bitcoin
In his blog, Hayes outlined factors that could trigger a temporary price decline. He focused primarily on deteriorating global fiat liquidity. Rising yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, tighter Federal Reserve policy, and reduced money issuance in countries such as the U.S., China, and Japan are creating unfavorable conditions for assets priced in fiat—including Bitcoin.
“Why do I predict a 30% correction for Bitcoin? Such drops often occur within a bull market because of the cryptocurrency’s high volatility,” Hayes noted.
According to him, these corrections are a normal part of market cycles. He also added that after Donald Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the market experienced a sharp rally due to expectations of increased money issuance in the U.S. and similar actions by other countries.
The impact of global factors on Bitcoin’s price
Hayes also examined how the economic policies of various countries could affect BTC. He emphasized that current economic stresses are increasing pressure on the market, but in the long term this will lead to even greater growth for the cryptocurrency.
Interestingly, despite support for the crypto industry from President Trump, Hayes believes the Fed may resist this policy due to personal ambitions and political disagreements.
An unexpected effect from DeepSeek
Although Hayes’s forecasts were not initially tied to the influence of the Chinese AI protocol DeepSeek, its emergence amplified the trends he had already anticipated. The sharp market downturn triggered by this protocol also hit major players such as MicroStrategy, despite their large-scale BTC purchases.
Forecast: short-term turbulence before a major rally
Hayes is confident that Bitcoin’s current price decline is only temporary. He notes that such corrections open the door to more substantial gains ahead and suggests the price could reach $250,000 after overcoming interim hurdles.
However, in the short term, investors should be prepared for potential losses, as the market has not yet stabilized. Even so, in Hayes’s view, this pullback only underscores Bitcoin’s long-term potential as a leading global asset.