BTC/USD has spent over two weeks trading within a tight 120,000.00–115,625.00 corridor, struggling to break free from its current range. On the bullish side, U.S. regulatory initiatives supporting stablecoins (the GENIUS Act and other crypto-focused legislation) continue to drive investor interest. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $72.3M in inflows, and the Fear & Greed Index remains elevated at 75, underscoring strong bullish sentiment.

However, easing global trade tensions—marked by U.S. agreements with Japan and the EU, and ongoing U.S.–China talks—have reduced recession risks and boosted the dollar, capping upside for alternative assets. Local pressure also emerged from a major whale sale of 80,000 BTC on Friday, one of the largest transactions in Bitcoin history.

Overall, optimism persists, but a sustained breakout above the current range’s upper boundary is needed to confirm a new uptrend.

Support, Resistance, and Technical Outlook

BTC/USD: Range-bound, but bullish signals buildBTC/USD: Range-bound, but bullish signals build

BTC/USD is once again approaching the 120,000.00 level. A confirmed breakout above this mark could extend gains to 125,000.00 (Murray [8/8] level) and 128,125.00 (Murray [+1/8]). Conversely, a breakdown below 115,625.00 (Murray [5/8]) would open the door to 109,375.00 (Murray [5/8], 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 106,250.00 (Murray [2/8]).

Technical indicators remain constructive: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic Oscillator are trending upward, while MACD is stable in positive territory, reinforcing the likelihood of further price appreciation.

Resistance levels: 120,000.00, 125,000.00, 128,125.00
Support levels: 115,625.00, 109,375.00, 106,250.00

Trading Scenarios and Weekly Strategies

  • Primary Scenario (Buy Stop):
    Entry: 120,050.00
    Take Profit: 125,000.00, 128,125.00
    Stop Loss: 117,200.00
  • Alternative Scenario (Sell Stop):
    Entry: 115,600.00
    Take Profit: 109,375.00, 106,250.00
    Stop Loss: 119,000.00
  • Key levels for both scenarios: 106,250.00, 109,375.00, 115,625.00, 120,000.00, 125,000.00, 128,125.00

Long trades are favored on a breakout and hold above 120,000.00, targeting 125,000.00 and 128,125.00 (stop: 117,200.00). Alternatively, shorts are valid below 115,625.00, aiming for 109,375.00 and 106,250.00 (stop: 119,000.00). Weekly timeframe recommended.