Bitcoin Price Forecast 2035: Bold Predictions Range From $500K to $11.6M

In the current bull market, it has almost become standard in the crypto sector to issue ever more daring Bitcoin predictions. Price targets ranging from $500,000 to as high as $11.6 million by 2035 are making the rounds — impressive, yet difficult to imagine. Examined the underlying models. What assumptions are they based on, and how realistic are they?

Bitcoin: From Niche to Spotlight

Few assets have been as polarizing in recent years as Bitcoin. For some, it is digital gold and the world’s best inflation hedge; for others, it remains a speculative risk with no intrinsic value. Accordingly, forecasts diverge widely: while “conservative” analysts already see $500,000 as a milestone, utopian models project Bitcoin at several million in the coming years. But which of these are serious, and where does speculation begin?

Bitwise: $1.3 Million by 2035

One of the more well-founded forecasts comes from Bitwise Asset Management. In its report Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the research team predicts a Bitcoin price of $1.3 million by 2035 — equivalent to an annual return of 28.3% from today’s levels.

This outlook is based on three factors. First, institutional demand for Bitcoin is only just beginning to accelerate. Large funds, pension plans, and family offices are increasingly allocating to BTC. Bitwise estimates that this alone could bring $1–5 trillion into the market. Second, Bitcoin’s supply remains strictly capped, with over 94% of the maximum 21 million already in circulation. Third, growing concerns that governments may reduce debt via fiat currency debasement increase the appeal of scarce assets like gold — and Bitcoin.

Companies, ETFs, and States: Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

It’s not only private investors and institutions accumulating BTC. Corporations and even governments have begun building Bitcoin reserves. Particularly notable is Strategy, which buys continuously and now holds about 632,000 BTC — nearly 3% of the maximum supply, making it the world’s largest private Bitcoin holder.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), launched in the U.S. in January 2024, have also attracted massive inflows and now hold around 7% of circulating supply. Governments are increasingly joining in: the U.S. officially owns about 198,000 BTC, the largest state-held reserve. Other countries, including China, the UK, and El Salvador, have also built significant holdings, tightening available supply.

Banks and Research Firms: Conservative to Bullish

Other financial institutions have issued ambitious targets. Standard Chartered expects $500,000 by 2028. AllianceBernstein sees $1 million by 2033. ARK Invest goes further, forecasting $1.5–2.5 million by 2030. The most extreme is a Strategy study suggesting Bitcoin could reach $21 million by 2046. The trend is clear: even conservative banks see six-figure Bitcoin, while the most bullish predictions sketch moonshot scenarios.

Alternative Models: The Most Utopian Forecasts

Crypto-native models go further still. The much-debated Stock-to-Flow model projects $11.6 million by 2035. The Power-Law model points to $1.5 million. The BAERM model estimates $7.5 million.

All three rely on extrapolating historical patterns or scarcity logic while ignoring external factors like regulation or technological disruption. Critics argue they are overly optimistic and one-dimensional.

Ethereum as a Comparison

It’s not just Bitcoin fueling bold visions. Ethereum also attracts ambitious forecasts. Standard Chartered expects ETH to hit $7,500 by 2025 and up to $25,000 by decade’s end. Institutional treasury firms like BitMine and SharpLink are already accumulating billions in ETH.

Reality Check: Between Dream and Reality

As impressive as these figures are, investors should be cautious. Forecasts depend on multiple uncertainties. While the U.S. regulatory climate has become more favorable since 2024, political shifts remain a risk. Institutional demand could indeed move trillions — or fade if narratives change. Technological risks, such as advances in quantum computing, could also challenge Bitcoin’s long-term security.

Ultimately, more conservative scenarios in the $500,000–$1.5 million range appear more plausible. Forecasts of $7 million or even $11.6 million illustrate the vast spectrum of possible futures rather than reliable projections.

Bitcoin thrives on grand narratives — and price forecasts are part of that story. Whether $500,000, $1.3 million, or $11.6 million, each figure says less about tomorrow’s reality than about today’s expectations and hopes. For investors, the takeaway is clear: utopian visions can inspire, but sound strategies must rest on conservative assumptions and strict risk management.