Institutional Demand and Legislative Expectations Fuel Rally

At press time, Bitcoin traded at approximately $121,381, registering a daily increase of over 2%. Institutional investors have notably accelerated their BTC acquisitions, with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in the U.S. surpassing $1 billion within a 24-hour timeframe. Consequently, total assets under management (AUM) in Bitcoin ETFs have climbed to an unprecedented $150 billion, now accounting for over 6% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization—a clear reflection of institutional confidence.

"This rally isn't happening in isolation," notes market analyst Rachael Lucas. "Significant Wall Street interest coupled with record ETF inflows underpins sustained institutional demand, despite potential short-term volatility risks."

Regulatory Catalyst: Spotlight on Crypto Week and Legislative Measures

Additional momentum is generated by the upcoming "Crypto Week" in the U.S. Congress, spotlighting the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act. The CLARITY Act aims to define clear regulatory jurisdictions between the SEC and the CFTC regarding cryptocurrency oversight. Simultaneously, the GENIUS Act seeks to provide a robust legal framework for U.S.-backed stablecoins. Optimistic expectations surrounding these legislative discussions are galvanizing investor enthusiasm and may significantly underpin Bitcoin's upward trajectory.

Analytical Outlook: Next Targets at $125,000–$128,000

Experts widely agree that breaking through the critical psychological threshold at $120,000 positions Bitcoin toward immediate targets of $125,000 and possibly $128,000 in the near term. Continued robust demand for Bitcoin ETFs, alongside favorable macroeconomic signals—including anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve—remains integral to sustaining bullish momentum.

According to SoSoValue analytics, cumulative U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows have reached an impressive $16.2 billion since April 2024, marking historic highs and further substantiating the growing institutional interest. Jeff May, Chief Operating Officer at BTSE exchange, emphasizes that long-term institutional commitments are likely strong enough to propel Bitcoin towards $125,000 within months.

Risks Ahead: Trade Tensions, Regulatory Delays, and Market Volatility

Despite optimism, industry observers caution about possible risks. Heightening trade conflicts between the U.S. and key global markets, such as the EU and Mexico, could prompt short-term corrections. However, institutional players appear relatively unfazed by such threats, maintaining bullish positions. Additional uncertainties involve possible delays in new ETF approvals or unexpected regulatory developments, which could momentarily dampen the bullish momentum without derailing the overall upward trend.

Technical Analysis: Key BTC/USD Levels and Price Discovery Mode

Technical indicators reflect Bitcoin's entry into a "price discovery" phase, with $120,000 serving as a fresh psychological benchmark. Immediate resistance lies in the $125,000–$128,000 zone, a potential area for profit-taking activities. On the downside, significant support is established around $115,000, followed by a deeper support level at the previous weekly high of $111,000.

  • Main drivers: institutional ETF inflows, legislative advancements, and macroeconomic optimism.
  • Primary risks: international trade tensions, legislative uncertainties, and broader market volatility.
  • Short-term Bitcoin price forecast: targeting $125,000 and $128,000.