Bitcoin Targets $131K After Breaking New Records — Weekly Price Forecast for BTC

On October 1, several U.S. government agencies halted operations as Democrats and Republicans in Congress failed to reach an agreement on raising the federal debt ceiling. As a result of the shutdown, around 750,000 employees were placed on unpaid leave for more than two weeks, and fresh economic data stopped flowing into the market. This uncertainty boosted investor demand for digital assets — primarily Bitcoin — as a store of value, since political instability has historically increased the appeal of decentralized assets. In the last five sessions, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted inflows totaling $3.236 billion, just shy of last November’s record figure. Meanwhile, the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges fell to a six-year low, and the “fear and greed” index climbed to 71 (“greed” zone). With the U.S. national debt nearing $38 trillion, confidence in the dollar continues to weaken, while the cooling labor market adds pressure. According to ADP data, private sector employment fell by 32,000 in September versus a forecast of –52,000, and August’s figure was revised down from 54,000 to –3,000. This strengthens the case for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, though some analysts believe policymakers could pause rate adjustments amid limited macroeconomic visibility.

Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive of further BTC/USD growth.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument has exited its downward channel and is approaching 125,000.00 (Murray level [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 0.0%). A breakout above this zone would likely pave the way toward fresh highs at 128,125.00 (Murray [+1/8]) and 131,250.00 (Murray [+2/8]). However, a decline below 118,750.00 (Murray [6/8]) could trigger a correction targeting 112,500.00 (Murray [4/8], Fibonacci 23.6%) and 105,390.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%).

Technical indicators confirm the formation of a bullish trend: Bollinger Bands are turning upward, the MACD histogram is expanding in the positive zone, and the Stochastic oscillator is preparing to exit overbought territory — allowing for a limited pullback.

Resistance levels: 125,000.00, 128,125.00, 131,250.00.

Support levels: 118,750.00, 112,500.00, 105,390.00.

Trading Scenarios and Bitcoin Forecast for the Week

Long positions can be opened above 125,000.00 with targets at 128,125.00 and 131,250.00, and a stop loss at 122,600.00. Estimated duration: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be considered below 118,750.00 with targets at 112,500.00 and 105,390.00, and a stop loss at 122,000.00.