Experts expect the Fed to cut rates on September 19, followed by a significant pause in policy changes due to White House tariffs, which pose inflation risks. This adds pressure on non-dollar assets. Analysts also note that September has historically been weak for crypto: Glassnode AG data show Bitcoin declined in 8 of the past 12 Septembers, averaging a 3.8% drop, while gains in the other 4 were minimal.
Support and resistance levels
The pair is trending lower: price is fixed below 109375.00 (Murray [3/8]) and could fall toward 106250.00 (Murray [2/8]), 103125.00 (Murray [1/8]), and 100000.00 (Murray [0/8]). However, consolidation above resistance at 112500.00–113700.00 (Murray [4/8], mid-Bollinger band) would open the way toward 118750.00 (Murray [6/8]) and 121875.00 (Murray [7/8]).
Technical indicators keep bearish signals: Bollinger bands slope downward, Awesome Oscillator histogram expands in the negative zone, and Stochastic is flat near oversold.
Resistance levels: 113700.00, 118750.00, 121875.00.
Support levels: 106250.00, 103125.00, 100000.00.
Trading scenarios, Forecast
Short positions can be opened from 107200.00 targeting 103125.00 and 100000.00, with stop-loss at 109400.00. Timeframe: 5–7 days.
Long positions can be considered above 113700.00 targeting 118750.00 and 121875.00, with stop-loss at 110800.00.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 107199.95
Take Profit: 103125.00, 100000.00
Stop Loss: 109400.00
Key levels: 100000.00, 103125.00, 106250.00, 113700.00, 118750.00, 121875.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 113700.05
Take Profit: 118750.00, 121875.00
Stop Loss: 110800.00
Key levels: 100000.00, 103125.00, 106250.00, 113700.00, 118750.00, 121875.00