BTC/USD Forecast: Fed Uncertainty and H-1B Policy Pressure, Key Levels at 109375 and 114000

Macroeconomic data has only strengthened doubts over further easing: the national economy expanded by 3.8% in Q2, showing little need for additional support, while the August core PCE index remained at 2.9%. These factors reinforce the case for caution inside the Fed and keep pressure on dollar alternatives such as Bitcoin.

Another source of concern is the White House’s proposal to introduce a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas for highly skilled foreign workers. Analysts warn this could negatively impact U.S. tech and digital firms that heavily rely on Indian and Chinese talent. Such measures may prompt talent migration toward firms in other jurisdictions, including the Middle East, slowing innovation and product development.

Together, these headwinds triggered two major sell-offs last week: $3.0 billion in long positions were liquidated on Monday and another $1.0 billion on Thursday. Against this backdrop, the weekend rebound remains fragile.

Support and Resistance Levels

The chart suggests the formation of a short-term downward channel: consolidation below 109375.00 (Murray [3/8]) could extend the decline toward 105390.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%) and 103125.00 (Murray [1/8]). Conversely, a breakout above the 112500.00–114000.00 resistance zone (Murray [4/8], Fibonacci 23.6%, Bollinger midline) would open the path to 118750.00 (Murray [6/8]) and 121875.00 (Murray [7/8]).

Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD is shrinking in the negative zone, while Stochastic is turning upward from oversold territory.

Resistance levels: 114000.00, 118750.00, 121875.00.

Support levels: 109375.00, 105390.00, 103125.00.

Trading Scenarios and BTC/USD Forecast

Short positions can be opened below 109375.00 with targets at 105390.00 and 103125.00, stop-loss at 112000.00. Timeframe: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be considered above 114000.00 with targets at 118750.00 and 121875.00, stop-loss at 110800.00.