The prospect of a near-term decline in Bitcoin has become a major talking point among crypto traders, as market dynamics and technical gaps suggest the world’s largest cryptocurrency could soon revisit its early July 2025 price levels. Despite this, many market participants remain convinced that any selloff will be followed by a sharp recovery, fueled in part by fresh moves from U.S. policymakers.
CME Futures Gap: The $114K–$115K “Magnet” for BTC
Ash Crypto, a well-known trader with nearly 2 million followers, recently flagged a risk zone at $114,000–$115,000 for BTC. The core of his warning centers around a classic CME futures gap—an unfilled price gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s bitcoin futures chart. Historically, such gaps tend to act as “magnets,” with price action frequently revisiting these zones before resuming an uptrend. According to Ash Crypto’s analysis, BTC could target this level as early as today, “closing the gap” before attempting a renewed rally.
CME gap in Bitcoin futures tradingProfit-Taking Pressure and Market Rotation
Selling pressure is also intensifying as traders lock in profits. Analyst Quentin Francois highlighted a peak in realized profit-taking—reaching $3.3 billion on July 17, according to on-chain data. While this metric has since declined, it remains elevated, suggesting a market still digesting significant exits by short-term holders.
Profit-taking surge signals correction riskLiquidity, Seasonality, and the Path to Recovery
Despite these risks, many investors remain bullish, pointing to a rise in U.S. liquidity. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, notes that the M2 money supply is expanding again—a trend that historically leads to increased crypto flows. On-chain observations show that fresh liquidity often migrates into BTC, with a typical lag of two to three months.
US M2 liquidity tracks BitcoinAnalysts at Root project further optimism, highlighting BTC’s historical pattern of Q3 strength. Their seasonality research suggests the third quarter frequently sees positive price action for bitcoin—a bullish tailwind for the weeks ahead.
BTC often rallies in Q3Regulatory Catalysts and Divergent Views
Optimism is reinforced by recent comments from Bo Hines, director of the U.S. Presidential Council on Digital Assets, who confirmed the White House’s Digital Assets Working Group has finalized its 180-day report, due for public release on July 30. Many expect the document to spark renewed institutional interest and offer fresh tailwinds for BTC.
Yet, not all voices are bullish. Prominent crypto blogger Carl Moon, with a following of 1.5 million, argues the bull run may be over, citing exhaustion in the current uptrend. It’s a reminder that sentiment in the crypto market is anything but uniform.
And for those wondering about the distant future, Elon Musk’s Grok AI recently shared its own long-term outlook—predicting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million, though without specifying a timeframe.