The sector is being influenced by several factors, but the most significant pressure comes from the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain current monetary policy and from the slowdown in equity benchmarks. Earlier, the Fed cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Jerome Powell said officials intend to pause any further adjustments for at least one meeting to assess the effects of the measures already taken. That stance supported the U.S. dollar against alternative assets and triggered selling: since the start of the week, the U.S. tech benchmark NQ 100 is down 2.8%, and the S&P 500 is down 1.7%.
The chart shows market expectations for a change in the Fed policy rate for the December 10, 2025 meeting (CME FedWatch Tool data).
Current target rate: 3.75–4.00%.
Market projections:
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Cut by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75% — probability 68.9%.
This is the base case, reflecting expectations of Fed easing by year-end.
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Hold at 3.75–4.00% — probability 31.1%.
This scenario is less likely but remains possible if inflation and the labor market stay resilient.
📈 Interpretation:
Most market participants are pricing in the first rate cut since the Fed’s pause began. This typically weighs on the U.S. dollar and supports equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
In addition, the ongoing government shutdown is hindering the adoption of legislation needed to regulate the digital-asset industry: some experts predict the package of digital-market rules may not take effect until the first half of next year. Investors are shunning risk assets amid U.S.–China trade tensions, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the expected resumption of nuclear tests with a corresponding arms race. Against this backdrop, the Fear & Greed Index has fallen back to “extreme fear” at 24, while outflows from crypto ETFs persist.
In the near term, the negative trend could give way to a rebound if the U.S. Supreme Court rules the White House’s tariff hikes unlawful. Most justices view the tariffs as a new type of corporate tax that is passed on to consumers, and measures of this kind require Congressional approval, which was not obtained. If such a ruling is issued, some sanctions would be lifted, global recession risks would ease, and investor interest in non-dollar assets could recover. The launch of new exchange-traded funds could also revive the crypto market: several investment firms have filed with the SEC to launch ETFs under a simplified procedure that allows automatic approval if regulators take no action within 20 days.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains challenging amid uncertainty around U.S. monetary and trade policy: next week most major assets could either extend declines or move into consolidation.