Geopolitics and Volatility: Flight to Safety and Fast Rebound
Last weekend, the market came under sharp pressure as renewed military conflict in the Middle East—particularly the escalation between Iran and Israel, with direct US involvement—sparked fears of soaring energy prices and global economic headwinds. Investors rapidly exited risk assets in favor of the US dollar and gold. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% intraday and briefly dipped below the critical $100,000 threshold. However, the swift de-escalation of hostilities restored risk appetite: the crypto fear & greed index rebounded into the “greed” zone, climbing to 65.
Momentum has since slowed, as attention shifts back to monetary policy headwinds. In his latest Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that sustained inflation acceleration is likely this summer due to rising trade tariffs, casting doubt on the possibility of any Fed rate cuts before autumn or even year-end. This macro backdrop continues to cap upside in digital assets for the medium term.
Key News: Ripple, Barclays Ban, Solana ETF on Deck
Among this week’s headlines, Ripple faced a new hurdle in its ongoing battle with the SEC. Judge Analisa Torres denied a joint motion by the regulator and Ripple to lower the civil penalty to $125 million and void a ruling classifying XRP institutional sales as securities transactions. Torres stated that a penalty reduction should be sought via formal appeal, not direct petitions. Meanwhile, Barclays announced a ban on crypto purchases via credit cards, citing the need to protect customers from sector volatility and potential financial losses.
On the regulatory front, US lawmakers are reviewing a bill that would prohibit commercial banks from denying accounts or services to crypto businesses solely based on their industry. Looking ahead to early July, market participants anticipate SEC approval for a new wave of spot Solana ETFs. Nine issuers have already filed, including Invesco and Galaxy Digital, whose joint “Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF” will track SOL prices directly and trade on Cboe BZX under ticker #QSOL. Analysts argue this could dramatically increase mainstream investor interest in digital assets.
Still, the market remains volatile and highly sensitive to both monetary policy and geopolitical news. In the coming week, leading tokens could either resume their pullback or consolidate, depending on macro developments and regulatory headlines.