The streak began on November 12, when ascetic0x deposited $12 into Polymarket. The platform settles short-term Bitcoin markets every 15 minutes and pays out a fixed return for correct predictions.
At first, the balance doubled and then started to grow step by step: from $12 to $24, then to $40, $101, later $406, $732, $2,400 and higher. Each jump was the result of another accurate call on Bitcoin’s next move.
The trader kept reinvesting profits, increasing position size only after previous wins confirmed their “feel” for short-term price action. The streak pushed the account balance to about $11,200 before the final trade. That last position bought “Yes” shares at roughly $0.43, and Bitcoin closed higher during the settlement window. The trade returned almost 2.3× and brought total profit close to $30,000.
Reports indicate that the largest single payout reached $18,200, while the verified portfolio showed more than $29,400 as of December 4.
How the strategy worked
The trader used ultra-fast analysis in each 15-minute window. They tracked:
-
Bitcoin’s immediate short-term trend;
-
changes in liquidity and order book depth;
-
funding and positioning signals (signs of overheated leverage);
-
flows across major spot exchanges.
The method relied on recognizing micro-patterns and reacting instantly to new data rather than forming long-term views. This approach fit perfectly with Polymarket’s structure, where very short settlement windows reward quick conviction and rapid decision-making.
The streak also highlighted strict emotional control. The trader made almost no pauses and consistently rolled profits forward into new positions. The run unfolded during a sharp bout of Bitcoin volatility in late November, when price swung between $89,000 and $97,000 amid shifting interest-rate expectations. Even so, the trader maintained precise execution in each round.
Over the same period, Polymarket itself was expanding rapidly: the platform recorded more than $3.7 billion in volume in November. Many users followed ascetic0x’s streak closely, viewing it as an example of how prediction markets can capture fast shifts in sentiment.
A moment that captured market attention
The run gained traction because it coincided with a period of macro uncertainty. Traders were searching for signals while markets waited for clarity from U.S. policymakers. Bitcoin reacted to every adjustment in rate expectations, yet ascetic0x largely ignored the broader narrative and focused purely on short intraday windows.
Their streak became one of the most striking performances among verified accounts, showing how prediction markets reward fast decisions and strict discipline. Many community members called the result exceptional, pointing to the combination of small initial stakes, sharp pattern recognition, and strong self-control.