Brent Oil Price Breakout: Bulls Target $70 as Supply Shifts

During the morning session, Brent Crude Oil futures extended their bullish momentum, testing the psychologically important $67.00 mark. Traders are positioning ahead of new catalysts, including today’s ADP employment data and Thursday’s official U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release.

Recent macro releases suggest underlying strength in the U.S. economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 (vs. 48.8 expected), while the S&P Global gauge climbed to 52.9. Job openings (JOLTS) also surprised to the upside at 7.769 million in May, up sharply from 7.395 million. Later today, market focus shifts to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude inventories report, expected to show a smaller drawdown—just –2.26 million barrels—compared to last week’s –5.836 million. Notably, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected weekly inventory build of 0.68 million barrels, signaling potential near-term headwinds.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia continues to increase shipments, capitalizing on logistical disruptions from Iran. Preliminary data indicate June exports rose by 441,000 barrels per day (+7%), lifting the kingdom’s total to roughly 6.4 million bpd—a move widely seen as an aggressive bid for global market share.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

• Resistance: $67.00, $68.00, $69.00, $70.00
• Support: $65.78, $65.00, $64.00, $63.00

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands remain tilted downward after last week’s sharp sell-off, while MACD holds a faint bearish signal below its trigger. However, the Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding, hinting at a bullish correction in the short term as prices attempt to reclaim lost ground.

Trading Strategies: Intraday Scenarios

• Short Setup: Sell below $65.78 (entry: $65.75), targeting $64.00, with a stop-loss at $67.00. (Horizon: 2–3 days)
• Long Setup (Alternative): Buy above $68.00, targeting $70.00, with a stop-loss at $67.00.