Investors are analyzing the latest Australian labor market data, which showed slight improvement: unemployment held at 4.2% in July, though experts believe the strengthening is temporary and expect the rate to return to 4.3% and remain at that level for several years. Full-time employment rose by 60.5 thousand to 10.125 million, while part-time jobs declined by 35.9 thousand to 4.515 million, bringing total employment to 14.641 million. The employment-to-population ratio increased to 64.2%, and total monthly hours worked climbed to 1.987 million.
The recent rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was fully supported by macro data. Analysts expect the regulator to stick to its dovish stance, potentially enacting at least one more cut before year-end.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (USDX) holds near 97.67, the closing level of last week. Market focus remains on the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. Talks lasted 2 hours 45 minutes, followed by a joint press conference stressing the need to address root causes of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and restore balance in European and global security. Traders now anticipate a possible trilateral meeting with U.S. mediation. On the macro side, Friday’s U.S. retail sales data weakened expectations for aggressive Fed easing in September: July headline sales slowed from 0.9% to 0.5%, and core retail sales dropped from 0.8% to 0.3%, highlighting consumer sector weakness under persistent inflation.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the price is moving away from the ascending channel’s support line with dynamic boundaries between 0.6670–0.6430.
Technical indicators are slowing their recent sell signal. The Alligator’s fast EMA lines are turning upward, converging toward the signal line, while the AO histogram remains in negative territory but has posted several green bars.
Support levels: 0.6456, 0.6330.
Resistance levels: 0.6570, 0.6690.
Trading Scenarios
If the pair continues its corrective rise and consolidates above resistance at 0.6570, buy positions will be relevant with a target at 0.6690. Stop-loss at 0.6500. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
If the decline continues and price secures below support at 0.6456, sell positions should be considered with a target at 0.6330. Stop-loss at 0.6510.
Scenario
- Timeframe: Weekly
- Recommendation: BUY STOP
- Entry Point: 0.6570
- Take Profit: 0.6690
- Stop Loss: 0.6500
- Key Levels: 0.6330, 0.6456, 0.6570, 0.6690
Alternative Scenario
- Recommendation: SELL STOP
- Entry Point: 0.6456
- Take Profit: 0.6330
- Stop Loss: 0.6510
- Key Levels: 0.6330, 0.6456, 0.6570, 0.6690