According to Stats NZ, food prices rose 5.0% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the 12th straight monthly increase after 4.6% growth in June. Negative dynamics were seen across all five major food categories: grocery items up 5.1%, milk surged 16.0% to NZD 4.70 for 2 liters, butter jumped 42.2% to NZD 17.18 per kg, cheese climbed 29.5% to NZD 13.01 per kg, and meat products rose 7.9%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (USDX) trades near 97.60. The U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska delivered no major breakthroughs, leaving the dollar under pressure amid weaker macro reports. July retail sales slowed from 0.9% to 0.5%, and industrial production contracted 0.1% after a 0.4% rise in June. CME FedWatch Tool now prices an 84.8% chance of a –25 bps Fed cut in September, slightly down from 92% last week.
Support and Resistance Levels
The pair is correcting slightly below the sideways channel’s resistance line with dynamic boundaries between 0.6110–0.5850.
Technical indicators still reflect bearish bias but are weakening: the Alligator’s EMA lines are converging toward the signal line, while the AO histogram remains below zero but is forming corrective bars.
Support levels: 0.5890, 0.5760.
Resistance levels: 0.5990, 0.6110.
Trading Scenarios
If the pair continues upward and consolidates above resistance at 0.5990, buy positions will be relevant with a target at 0.6110. Stop-loss at 0.5930. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
If the decline resumes and price secures below support at 0.5890, sell positions should be considered with a target at 0.5760. Stop-loss at 0.5970.
Scenario
- Timeframe: Weekly
- Recommendation: BUY STOP
- Entry Point: 0.5990
- Take Profit: 0.6110
- Stop Loss: 0.5930
- Key Levels: 0.5760, 0.5890, 0.5990, 0.6110
Alternative Scenario
- Recommendation: SELL STOP
- Entry Point: 0.5890
- Take Profit: 0.5760
- Stop Loss: 0.5970
- Key Levels: 0.5760, 0.5890, 0.5990, 0.6110