Gains are supported by rising expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17 meeting, as noted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium. At the same time, investors remain concerned about political pressure on monetary authorities from the White House. Recently, President Donald Trump openly criticized the Fed’s chair for delayed decisions, demanding immediate rate cuts. In addition, Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Cook subsequently sued the president, and the first hearing took place on Friday, though Judge Jia Cobb postponed a ruling.

Market activity today remains muted due to U.S. markets being closed for Labor Day. Analysts are digesting Friday’s July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data — a key Fed inflation gauge. The core PCE index rose from 2.8% to 2.9% year-over-year, while holding steady at 0.3% month-over-month. The broader PCE measure was unchanged at 2.6% y/y, slowing from 0.3% to 0.2% m/m.

Later this week, attention shifts to Friday’s U.S. labor market report at 14:30 (GMT+2). Projections call for the unemployment rate to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%, while average hourly earnings growth should hold at 0.3%. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 78,000, up from 73,000 previously.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show strong expansion, reflecting rising volatility, though price action is outpacing the bands. MACD continues upward, maintaining a solid buy signal above the signal line. Stochastic, however, is turning downward from overbought levels, signaling potential corrective risks in the near term.

  • Resistance levels: 3500.00, 3525.00, 3550.00, 3575.00
  • Support levels: 3451.01, 3412.03, 3374.91, 3350.00

Trading Scenarios

Long positions can be opened after a firm breakout above 3500.00, targeting 3550.00 with a stop-loss at 3475.00. Expected timeframe: 1–2 days.

Short positions could be initiated after a rebound from 3500.00 as resistance and a subsequent break below 3451.01, targeting 3374.91 with a stop-loss at 3500.00.XAU USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday
  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry point: 3500.05
  • Take Profit: 3550.00
  • Stop Loss: 3475.00
  • Key Levels: 3350.00, 3374.91, 3412.03, 3451.01, 3500.00, 3525.00, 3550.00, 3575.00

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry point: 3451.00
  • Take Profit: 3374.91
  • Stop Loss: 3500.00
  • Key Levels: 3350.00, 3374.91, 3412.03, 3451.01, 3500.00, 3525.00, 3550.00, 3575.00