A key driver for AUD remains a rising probability that the Federal Reserve resumes a dovish stance in September—Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled as much at Jackson Hole. According to CME FedWatch, markets assign ~80% odds of a 25 bp rate cut on September 17. This macro backdrop supports the near-term AUD/USD rate and underpins the short-term bullish forecast.
Sentiment is also buoyed by headlines around U.S. tariff policy. On Friday, a U.S. Appeals Court upheld a prior ruling to strike down most “retaliatory” White House tariffs. While this does not mean immediate removal, it reduces the likelihood of near-term increases, adding modest support for risk assets including AUD.
Support and Forecast
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands edge higher, with a slight top-side expansion that may cap upside speed in the very short term. MACD is rising, holding a firm buy signal above the signal line and crossing above zero. Stochastic has flattened at elevated levels, flagging overbought risks for AUD in the ultra-short term.
Resistance: 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687.
Support: 0.6530, 0.6500, 0.6462, 0.6438.
Trading scenarios (rate & forecast)
Long positions: consider on a confident break above 0.6570, targeting 0.6644, with a stop-loss at 0.6530. Horizon: 2–3 days.
Short positions: consider on a return of bearish momentum with a break below 0.6530, targeting 0.6462, with a stop-loss at 0.6570.
Scenario
Timeframe: Intraday Forecast
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry: 0.6575
Take Profit: 0.6644
Stop Loss: 0.6530
Key levels: 0.6438, 0.6462, 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry: 0.6525
Take Profit: 0.6462
Stop Loss: 0.6570
Key levels: 0.6438, 0.6462, 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687