The market is adjusting as investors expect Russia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, and Oman to increase hydrocarbon production by 550,000 barrels per day in September. This move would complete their exit from voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day almost a year earlier than planned. While most OPEC+ members are currently experiencing oversupply that has yet to be balanced, the increases in August and September following July’s adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day confirm the need for structural changes in the energy sector.

On Wednesday at 22:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release data on fuel reserves, which may show a slight decline following last week’s –0.974 million barrels. On Thursday at 18:00 (GMT+2), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its report, which is expected to indicate continued negative dynamics of around –1.500 million barrels compared to –2.392 million barrels previously. These figures align with forecasts from leading experts at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is retreating from the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 79.00–68.00, forming a downward wave.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, which could strengthen further: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, though not yet diverging sharply, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 68.20, 72.60.
Support levels: 66.00, 62.50.

Trading Scenarios

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 66.00, targeting 62.50. Stop-loss — 68.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after price rises and consolidates above 68.20, targeting 72.60. Stop-loss — 67.00.

Oil

Scenario

Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendations: SELL STOP
Entry Point: 65.95
Take Profit: 62.50
Stop Loss: 68.00
Key Levels: 62.50, 66.00, 68.20, 72.60

Alternative Scenario

Recommendations: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 68.25
Take Profit: 72.60
Stop Loss: 67.00
Key Levels: 62.50, 66.00, 68.20, 72.60