The euro continues its consolidation just below the 1.1800 mark in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, sustaining its upward bias near record highs last seen in September 2021.

The single currency is buoyed by persistent US dollar weakness, stemming from mounting concerns over the state of the US economy amid President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and legislative moves aimed at tax cuts and a higher federal debt ceiling. Today at 14:15 (GMT+2), the ADP private sector employment report is due—analysts expect a robust rebound in US jobs, with June’s figure forecast to jump from 37,000 to 95,000. The official labor market data will follow on Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), as US markets will be closed on July 4 for Independence Day. Market consensus anticipates a slight uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%, while other key metrics are projected to remain largely unchanged—a development that could weigh on the greenback, especially as the Fed often cites labor market stability as justification for its current policy stance.

In the eurozone, May unemployment figures will be released at 11:00 (GMT+2) and are expected to confirm a steady rate of 6.2%. Later at 16:15 (GMT+2), European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, possibly addressing the end of the rate-cutting cycle. Most analysts currently forecast at most one more 25 basis point reduction this year.

Forex GBP/USD: Pound Stable Ahead of Key Data

The British pound is trading in a tight range near 1.3740 against the US dollar, with traders awaiting new catalysts. At 14:15 (GMT+2), the ADP jobs report could provide a fresh impulse, especially if US employment growth accelerates to the expected 95,000 in June. On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), the final June US labor market report could influence next week’s trading dynamics.

Meanwhile, the US Senate narrowly passed a bill (51-50) featuring significant tax reductions, an extension of Trump-era tax breaks, a higher debt ceiling, and new defense spending on the “Iron Dome” system—expected to cost the US budget around $3.3 trillion. The pound is also supported by expectations that US import tariffs will rise after July 9, with the UK remaining the only major economy to have secured a final trade agreement with Washington.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Tests Resistance

The Australian dollar is strengthening, pushing toward the 0.6580 resistance zone in the Asian session, having recently hit new local highs not seen since November. Today, investor focus shifts to Australian macro data: the AiG Manufacturing Index fell sharply in May (from -23.5 to -29.3), industrial sentiment improved marginally (from -12.3 to -11.9), while construction sentiment dropped (from -6.4 to -14.9). Building permits growth slowed to 6.5% year-on-year, while monthly growth rebounded 3.2% after a 4.1% drop. Retail sales also edged up 0.2% month-over-month, defying expectations.

US jobs data at 14:15 (GMT+2) could bolster the greenback if the June print surprises to the upside, but final labor market numbers on Thursday will be the true driver. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to fall from 139,000 to 110,000, annual average hourly earnings to steady at 3.9%, and monthly wage growth to slow from 0.4% to 0.3%.

USD/JPY: Dollar Recovers as Yen Awaits New Drivers

The US dollar is rebounding in the USD/JPY pair, testing the 143.60 level following earlier declines to fresh local lows set on June 5. Today’s ADP employment report (14:15 GMT+2) may provide additional support for the dollar if it confirms robust hiring.

Recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved from 48.5 to 49.0 (vs. 48.8 expected), and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.0 to 52.9. Notably, US job openings (JOLTS) unexpectedly surged from 7.395 million to 7.769 million in May. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen drew support from positive Tankan survey data: large enterprise activity jumped from 3.1% to 11.5% in Q2, with major manufacturers improving from 12.0 to 13.0, bucking expectations. However, Jibun Bank’s Manufacturing PMI dipped from 50.4 to 50.1.

XAU/USD: Gold Holds Above $3340 Ahead of US Data

Gold is consolidating around $3340 per ounce during the morning session, with market activity subdued ahead of Thursday’s crucial US labor data (14:30 GMT+2). This month’s report will be released a day early due to the US holiday. Consensus anticipates nonfarm job creation to slow from 139,000 to 110,000, with average hourly earnings at 3.9% YoY and monthly wage growth slipping from 0.4% to 0.3%. Unemployment is forecast to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Analysts are increasingly concerned about the Fed’s policy independence, as Chair Jerome Powell remains reluctant to adopt a more dovish stance despite growing political pressure from President Trump. Weekly jobless claims will also be in focus tomorrow at 14:30 (GMT+2): initial claims for the week ending June 27 are expected to edge up from 236,000 to 240,000, while continuing claims may ease from 1.974 million to 1.960 million.