SNB officials are also weighing an increasingly undesirable option: a return to negative interest rates. How long USD/CHF can sustain any upside momentum will play a major role in shaping the regulator’s final decision. Recent macroeconomic data have provided additional support to the franc. In the fourth quarter of last year, Switzerland’s residential property price index rose by 0.5% to 125.0 points and by 3.9% year-on-year. Average inflation for 2025 stood at 4.6%, matching the pace seen in 2024. The strongest price increases were recorded in condominiums (up 0.6%) and single-family homes (up 1.9%).
The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is hovering near 96.90, pulling back after Friday’s sharp rally that followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of his preferred candidate for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. That nominee is Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as leaning toward a more “dovish” policy stance. As The Financial Times notes, the potential appointment would come at one of the most sensitive moments in the Fed’s 112-year history, with the central bank facing mounting political pressure—particularly from Trump, who has been openly campaigning for faster interest-rate cuts.
On December 23, Trump stated explicitly that disagreement with his position would effectively rule out a candidate from leading the Fed, further fueling investor concerns about the institution’s independence. Adding to these worries, a criminal investigation was reportedly launched in January into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed’s Washington headquarters. Markets interpreted this as a possible precedent for political pressure on monetary authorities. Powell himself described the situation as part of a broader effort by the White House to undermine the central bank’s autonomy, especially in matters of monetary policy.
Given Trump’s backing, Warsh’s appointment now appears highly likely. As a result, markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that rate cuts could accelerate from May onward. This expectation triggered a broad-based sell-off in real assets on Friday: major equities fell by 5–10%, while precious metals plunged by more than 20%—a move not seen in many years. While today’s trading could bring some short-term stabilization due to the disorderly nature of the decline, the risk of trend continuation remains elevated.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading well below the lower boundary of a descending channel, with dynamic limits in the 0.8100–0.7800 zone.
By the end of last month, technical indicators had firmly turned bearish and continue to signal selling pressure. The fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator sit just below the signal line and are diverging further, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram is printing corrective bars in negative territory.
Resistance levels: 0.7800, 0.8030.
Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7420.
Trading scenarios and USD/CHF outlook
Short positions may be considered after a clear break and consolidation below 0.7660, with a downside target at 0.7420. Stop-loss: 0.7750. Time horizon: seven days or more.
Long positions could be considered if price breaks and holds above 0.7800, targeting 0.8030. Stop-loss: around 0.7710.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 0.7660 |
| Take Profit | 0.7420 |
| Stop Loss | 0.7750 |
| Key levels | 0.7420, 0.7660, 0.7800, 0.8030 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 0.7800 |
| Take Profit | 0.8030 |
| Stop Loss | 0.7710 |
| Key levels | 0.7420, 0.7660, 0.7800, 0.8030 |