Alcoa Stock Outlook: Q3 Loss Fails to Stop Bullish Momentum

At the end of last month, management released its Q3 results: despite weak performance and the company’s first quarterly loss since spring 2024, Alcoa’s stock remains in a positive trend. This resilience is likely linked to the company’s development outlook, outlined by CEO Bill Oplinger during his shareholder briefing. A significant improvement is expected in the alumina segment in Q4, which should boost shipment volumes and free up working capital. In addition, Alcoa is preparing to bring its San Ciprián smelter to full production capacity in 2026. As a result, despite reporting a loss, BMO Capital Markets reaffirmed its “market perform” rating and even raised the stock’s price target from $35.00 to $37.00, citing stronger revenue growth of 19.4% year-over-year.

In its Q3 report, Alcoa posted revenue of $3.00 billion, slightly below $3.02 billion in the previous quarter but higher than $2.90 billion a year earlier. The company reported a loss per share of –$0.02, compared to earnings of $0.62 in Q2 and $0.57 in the same period last year.

Alcoa continues its policy of minimal dividends: the next payment is scheduled for November 21 at $0.10 per share, reflecting a quarterly yield of 1.08%, below the sector median of 2.44%.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the stock has reversed upward again, approaching the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries between 42.00 and 34.00.

Technical indicators remain moderately bullish: the EMA lines on the Alligator indicator are widening upward, and the AO histogram is forming new green bars slightly above the zero level.

Support levels: 35.00, 30.00.

Resistance levels: 39.00, 45.00.

Trading Scenarios and Alcoa Forecast

If the price reverses upward and consolidates above the 39.00 resistance level, long positions may be opened with a target of 45.00 and a stop loss at 37.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

If the decline continues and the price consolidates below the 35.00 support level, short positions with a target of 30.00 and a stop loss at 37.00 become relevant.