XAU/USD Forecast: Gold Tests $4,520 as Traders Watch Fed Data and Middle East Risks

Investors and forex traders are focused on U.S. macroeconomic statistics, which will shape further expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), JOLTS job openings data will be published, followed by the ISM business activity index at the same time tomorrow, while nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday at 14:30 (GMT+2). Signs of a resilient labor market and accelerating inflation would strengthen arguments in favor of maintaining hawkish rhetoric and put additional pressure on gold prices. Conversely, signs of cooling in the U.S. economy could temporarily weaken the dollar and allow the precious metal to correct higher. Traders are also monitoring the situation in the Middle East, which remains the main source of geopolitical uncertainty.

Despite hopes that persisted until the end of last week for a 60-day ceasefire memorandum between the United States and Iran, the conflict escalated sharply on Sunday and Monday. Tehran officially announced the suspension of negotiations in protest against military operations in Lebanon, which it described as a direct violation of the ceasefire terms. The Israel Defense Forces expanded their military campaign against the Iran-backed paramilitary group Hezbollah, launching airstrikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut and other group facilities. According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, the Islamic Republic’s negotiating team stopped exchanging messages with the United States through intermediaries. At the same time, Tehran attacked a U.S. airbase, while U.S. Central Command intercepted missiles launched toward Kuwait.

In addition, inflation statistics remain available to experts: the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index accelerated to a three-year high of 3.8% year-on-year, while the core indicator rose to 3.3%, more than twice the 2.0% target. Thus, price pressure remains persistent, excluding the likelihood of monetary policy easing in the near future. In the short term, the market almost unanimously expects the rate to remain unchanged at the June meeting: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a pause is 99.3%, while by the end of the year markets expect at least one 25-basis-point rate increase.

In the gold contracts market, active trading continues. According to the latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net speculative positions in gold decreased last week from 159.8K to 154.3K. Investors are still maintaining large long positions, with the balance among bulls in real-money-backed positions at 124.534K versus 27.603K for bears. Last week, buyers increased their positions by 0.476K, while sellers reduced theirs by 2.068K.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moderately declining: the price range is narrowing, reflecting mixed ultra-short-term trading dynamics. The MACD indicator is turning upward, maintaining a weak buy signal as the histogram remains above the signal line, while Stochastic is moving horizontally near the “80” mark. It is advisable to wait for clearer signals from the indicators.

Resistance levels: 4549.78, 4600.00, 4657.61, 4698.86.

Support levels: 4500.00, 4447.61, 4400.00, 4350.00.

XAU/USD trading scenarios and forecast

Long positions may be opened after a breakout above 4549.78, with a target at 4657.61. Stop-loss — 4500.00. Expected timeframe: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 4549.78 and a breakout below 4500.00, with a target at 4400.00. Stop-loss — 4549.78.